Canada’s authorities is in bother.
The Canadian government, currently led by long-serving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, sustained another blow on Monday when Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unexpectedly resigned, issuing a scathing letter that lambasted her former leader.
Freeland’s disagreement with Trudeau regarding Canada’s economic strategy amidst looming US tariffs served as a pivotal moment that ultimately strained their relationship. Following Justin Trudeau’s election in Canada, concerns about the country’s economic stability began to mount, placing significant pressure on his government, which is merely one part of a larger, more complex issue that requires careful consideration. The Trudeau government has gradually eroded public and parliamentary trust over the past few years. As pressure builds to maintain Prime Minister Trudeau’s government afloat, calls for his resignation are gaining momentum, especially considering his party’s anticipated electoral setbacks next year.
As early as before Freeland’s resignation, whispers began to circulate that Prime Minister Trudeau’s government was teetering on the edge of disaster, its very foundations precarious and unsustainable. As Freeland’s departure takes effect, Canadian authorities teeter on uncertain ground, poised to face a formidable challenge from the impending Trump administration, which promises to be a fierce adversary.
Before the Freeland controversy, Prime Minister Trudeau faced two key challenges: widespread public dissatisfaction with his government’s policies and significant discontent within his own party regarding his leadership.
Since 2015, Trudeau has served as the Prime Minister of Canada for nearly a decade, leading the Liberal Party for over 13 years. In the Canadian context, that’s a remarkably long period to be stuck in an energy-intensive state. Despite initially enjoying high approval ratings, Trudeau’s popularity has plummeted, now standing at just 32%.
“In some methods, it’s not surprising Canadians are fed up with their federal government, as officials can become complacent after a certain point in their tenure, leading to a tendency to blame past mistakes on the individual who has been in charge for 10 years,” said Elizabeth McCallion, a University of Toronto political science professor. Are Canadians over Trudeau?
While Canada faces several pressing concerns at present. As the nation grapples with escalating costs of living and housing crises, a heated debate has emerged over the Liberal Party’s approaches to immigration and environmental policy, setting the stage for intense discussion ahead of the 2025 elections. The Conservative Party’s chief rival, the Liberal Occasion, has been quick to seize upon these points.
As polls suggest conservatives are poised for significant gains in next year’s elections, opposition parties’ political attacks on the Liberal government have already demonstrated considerable potency, threatening even previously safe seats in recent by-elections. The recent losses have significantly eroded Prime Minister Trudeau’s standing within the Liberal Party, fueling widespread doubts about his leadership.
“He has faced a series of significant setbacks in recent months, including notable by-election losses,” said Andrew McDougall, a University of Toronto political science professor speaking to Vox. He lost a crucial file folder labeled ‘St.’ somewhere in Toronto, referred to as the [district]. The apparent vulnerability of Paul’s Liberal alliance raised questions about his tenure, prompting speculation that his departure could become a realistic possibility. The liberal party’s disappointing performance in Montreal, a traditionally strong base of support, raises questions about their ability to win elsewhere.
The sudden departure of Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has sparked widespread calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down, amidst allegations of incompetence and poor governance. Lacking a viable alternative, there appears to be little scope to remove him from his position of social media management unless he agrees to step down voluntarily; currently, no other candidate seems poised to take the reins effectively. Despite this, the House of Commons may opt to trigger early elections through a no-confidence vote after late January, following their next meeting after the holidays.
While the timing of elections is uncertain, they will be considered early only if successful. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s minority government was saved by a series of confidence votes, thanks in part to unexpected support from the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois, a pro-Quebec federal party that had historically been a coalition partner with the NDP. Although the New Democratic Party (NDP) terminated its partnership agreement with the Liberals last year, and the Bloc Québécois’s leader subsequently announced that he would not support the deal due to the Liberal Party’s failure to meet certain demands. Although it’s unlikely the NDP would consider dissolving the federal government at this point, it’s possible they might choose to spare Justin Trudeau if they decide against removing him from power, allowing the Liberals to retain control for the time being.
As the Canadian federal election season approaches, the Conservative Party and the Bloc Québécois are poised to trigger an early vote, while the New Democratic Party appears more hesitant due to unfavorable polling numbers. According to Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, “They’ve consistently supported the Liberal government over the years and typically do so when there’s another confidence vote in play.”
Without warning, Trump introduced a fresh bombshell into this already turbulent domestic scenario.
On a November evening, Trump issued a statement that warned: “Unless we can find a way to halt the influx of Fentanyl and the unlawful immigration crisis, I will be forced to take drastic measures.”
While Trump’s understanding of the complexities surrounding NAFTA is oversimplified, the actualities of this trade agreement are indeed nuanced, making it challenging for Canada or Mexico to quickly adjust both aspects. If he were to observe the risks, these tariffs could prove devastatingly harmful to both nations; in Canada’s case, the US is overwhelmingly its largest trading partner. The additional tariffs would exacerbate the affordability crisis that has plagued Canada under Trudeau’s leadership, further worsening the economic woes.
Cheryl Freeland was expected to lead Canada’s response to these tariffs; however, in a prompt exchange with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, they disagreed on how to approach the challenge presented.
The incoming US administration is adopting an agenda of aggressive financial nationalism, accompanied by a threat of imposing 25% tariffs. “We must assume that risk with extraordinary significance.”
Freeland charged that Trudeau employed expensive fiscal “tricks,” including halting certain taxes and sending stimulus cheques to families earning below a specified threshold, to maintain support, thereby putting Canada at risk of financial instability as it confronts a severe challenge.
Despite being rare for authority figures to publicly criticize their own party leadership, the departures of key officials like Freeland signal a profound lack of unity within Justin Trudeau’s government.
Since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s departure, Prime Minister Trudeau has remained silent on the matter, leaving uncertainty surrounding his next moves and the implications for Canada’s economy and unity amidst looming tariff threats and internal party divisions. The Trudeau government had previously negotiated a trade agreement with the Trump administration, an experience that could have been leveraged to inform subsequent negotiations.
Although Trudeau couldn’t fully replay the negotiation process, he remained unable to do so. Despite potentially weathering a no-confidence vote in the near future, next year’s elections remain scheduled for October, with the Conservative Party still expected to emerge victorious.
