Voters in Germany maintained just a few world developments this previous weekend: They kicked out incumbents, their youth moved to the best, they usually delivered one other shock. Their radical, anti-immigrant get together (Various für Deutschland, or AfD) completed second, and was doubtless boosted by some LGBTQ voters.
The rightward shift of homosexual, lesbian, and bisexual voters is a dynamic taking part in out throughout western Europe. Within the UK, France, and now Germany, homosexual voters or their allies are backing far-right or nativist political events at rising charges. That queer shift to the best doesn’t appear to be materializing in the USA, nonetheless. Through the 2024 election, LGBTQ voters really acquired extra Democratic than in 2020.
What explains this gulf, particularly as so many different world political developments replicate themselves within the US?
After reviewing the developments and historic context, I supply two theories: that Europeans have had vastly completely different experiences with worldwide migration than these within the US; and that the American LGBTQ group has historic causes to mistrust a radicalized Republican Get together in a two-party system.
The “homonativist” shift of European gays and their allies
It was as soon as thought that the rising public acceptance of queerness and homosexuality would reinforce — or not less than coincide — with usually extra progressive views on political points, each in and out of doors the USA. However that doesn’t seem like the case.
In Germany, these developments may be traced again to earlier than the pandemic: A number of analyses of LGBTQ voters discovered small, however sustained assist from homosexual voters for AfD and center-right events in 2021’s elections when in comparison with the 2017 federal elections there. One examine even discovered that the likelihood of voting for the AfD elevated in 2021 in case you have been LGBTQ. This yr, one pre-election survey instructed AfD would obtain the best share of LGBTQ voters’ assist among the many main events. (The AfD having a charismatic homosexual chief this yr doubtless didn’t damage both.)
Because the researcher and political analyst François Valentin writes, this dynamic has been true in France and the UK going again to as early as 2015. One evaluation of vote alternative in 2015 discovered that it was married homosexual males who have been most certainly to assist the anti-immigrant Nationwide Entrance (FN), the French far-right get together, in that yr’s regional elections (and extra doubtless than married straight males), whereas married homosexual ladies supported the FN at about the identical stage as straight ladies. It was throughout that point that the FN went by a refresh, turning into much less antagonistic to LGBTQ folks and courting them.
In the UK, the center-left Labour Get together has usually held robust assist from lesbian, homosexual, and bisexual voters, whereas far-right events have struggled to achieve a considerable share of those voters in recent times. However throughout Europe, there has emerged a distinct sort of voters: one with progressive views on homosexuality, however conservative or reactionary views on immigration.
Almost a 3rd of the British voters might fall below this “homonativist” classification, based on one evaluation ready for the London College of Economics.
Far-right events in France and Germany have been almost single-mindedly centered on more durable insurance policies towards migrants and refugees, suspicion of Islam particularly, opposition to European Union integration, and a reclamation of native or nationwide identification. The UK’s Conservative get together has embraced many of those nativist beliefs as nicely.
British researcher Jesse Grainger, of King’s Faculty London, suggests this give attention to immigration and nativism could also be key to understanding LGBTQ voters’ rising assist for the far-right.
“Cultural research have additionally theorised that pro-LGBT attitudes could also be rising as a result of of immigration,” he writes, “as progressive LGBT+ values may be weaponised as a method of differentiating the native liberal inhabitants from the backward immigrant inhabitants — establishing a tolerant vs illiberal binary.”
In different phrases, European far-right political events have created numerous binaries round identification, safety and public security that place migrants and queer folks at odds. And queer voters pissed off with the established order have a welcome residence in newer or rehabilitated far-right events, significantly in France and Germany.
Why “homonativists” nonetheless haven’t gotten their footing within the US
Not solely have LGBTQ voters not seen the identical rightward drift as their European counterparts, however they’ve really seen the alternative: From 1992 to 2016, exit polls have proven this bloc of voters have been steadily getting extra liberal. (Exit polls may be noisy and unreliable, and often corrected months after elections, however are nonetheless the most effective device we’ve for measuring developments for teams like LGBTQ voters.)
In 2020, polling did counsel a rightward flip for queer voters: Trump minimize into the Democratic margin of victory with the demographic in comparison with 2016 by almost 20 factors. In 2024, indicators have been pointing towards one other yr of Republican enchancment with these voters.
However the ultimate consequence was one other twist: Kamala Harris gained the best stage of assist from LGBTQ voters in trendy historical past — 86 p.c. The truth is, LGBTQ voters have been one of many solely demographics that shifted left final yr. And their ideologies have remained constantly liberal — 47 p.c of LGBTQ males and 63 p.c of LGBTQ ladies determine as liberal.
For now, the prospect of a rising right-wing LGBTQ motion within the US appears to face many extra hurdles.
The reasons listed below are numerous — beginning with the distinctive American political expertise of the homosexual rights motion. However one key factor to know is that whereas most European nations have multiparty methods that may give voters a way that probably the most excessive positions of any given get together will likely be checked by a group of rivals, the US actually solely has two events.
And whereas each began off as hostile to homosexual rights, the Democratic Get together has been faster to tolerate, settle for, and champion LGBTQ folks.
The Republican Get together has been rather more hostile. That’s been significantly true over the last 5 years, which have featured GOP fearmongering round trans athletes and loos, “grooming,” and “Don’t Say Homosexual” laws. On this manner, the Republican Get together went in the other way of many European far-right or right-wing events’ firming down of homophobic or bigoted speech and positions.
Younger queer folks could also be turned off from any sort of ideological or coverage pitch from Republicans who’ve largely turned towards bigoted, discriminatory, or hostile speech and coverage. And people who do bitter on the GOP have solely two actual choices: Be a part of the Democrats or ignore the political course of fully.
A few of American LGBTQ voters’ liberalism will also be defined by demographics. Within the US, LGBTQ folks skew youthful and feminine, part of the voters that’s extra prone to maintain extra liberal views to start with. And a small however rising share of Gen Z particularly identifies as transgender — which means the Republican Get together’s flip towards trans folks and trans rights can be prone to flip off potential future voters who’re solidifying their ideological and partisan identities of their early years of political exercise.
And immigration, has simply not functioned as a wedge problem in the identical manner it has for European LGBT voters or voters who assist homosexual marriage or homosexual rights. America’s personal immigration challenges are rather more muted than what European nations have skilled — locations like France and Germany have endured extra of a shock due to the magnitude of the inflow of refugees and migrants over the past 10 years, the diploma of safety and terrorist threats they’ve confronted, and the relative measurement of their new foreign-born populations. Our personal American mythos of being a land of immigrants has additionally usually made the nation extra accepting of immigrants over the past 30 years. It’s solely not too long ago that the nation has taken a sharp anti-immigrant flip, largely due to financial nervousness and issues over public order.
And although some Republican activists and politicians tried to make use of the identical rhetorical method to influence some (primarily) homosexual male voters, they simply haven’t been as profitable as European far-right events.
After all, none of those dynamics are set in stone, and ideologies could proceed to alter. However for now, the prospect of a rising right-wing LGBTQ motion within the US appears to face many extra hurdles.
