Iran’s presidential election saw Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist candidate, secure a narrow victory over his hardline opponent on Sunday. Despite the clerics’ long-term priorities being the primary source of energy in Iran, Pezeshkian’s ability to introduce meaningful changes is severely limited, with only minor tweaks possible in select areas – and even those reforms are not guaranteed to survive beyond his term in office?
The resounding success of Pezeshkian’s campaign serves as a stark reminder of the complexities inherent in both Iran’s theocratic regime, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the enigmatic nature of its citizens. The stark reality is that the ability of presidential candidates to run, as determined by a council of clerics known as the Guardian Council, which is closely tied to Khamenei and his allies who dominate Iran’s power structure, suggests that they acknowledge widespread discontent among Iranians with the status quo, particularly in the aftermath of…
Notwithstanding, a resilient factor exists among Iran’s citizens regarding reforms, as exemplified by the fact that Pezeshkian’s rival, Saeed Jalili, is a hardline conservative. Notwithstanding the need for measured scepticism regarding Iran’s management given their history of deception, the regime invested heavily in Jalili’s candidacy, making his victory a priority. The fact that nearly half of the electorate supported Jalili’s candidacy starkly highlights the pervasive polarisation within the nation.
The lack of meaningful insight into the election’s outcome stems largely from the fact that mass abstentions, whether orchestrated by activist groups in support of the Lady, Life, Freedom movement or stemming solely from voter disinterest, further complicate any attempts to draw conclusions from turnout figures. While many voters flocked to candidates who offered limited reform, increased transparency, and a commitment to standing firm against internal divisions and striving to improve people’s lives,
A senior fellow at the Middle for Global Policy notes that historically, whenever a true reform-minded candidate enters the political arena, they ultimately succeed in their endeavors. In a sense, it was a shock that he was allowed to run? Not surprisingly, he garnered significant support early on, with polls consistently indicating his popularity. Despite these results, it appears that nearly everyone who cast a vote shares a desire for reform, accompanied by disappointment.
Despite the election of a new Iranian president, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with the powerful Guardian Council, maintain ultimate authority over the country’s international relations, effectively dominating policy decisions. Pezeshkian will possess limited authority to make adjustments within Iran’s domestic sphere, yet must operate within the parameters set by Iran’s theocratic governance structure.
The President’s ambitions are well-documented, encompassing the social sphere, fiscal landscape, and potentially Iran’s global diplomatic ties, aligning with the British think-tank Chatham House’s assessments. “To succeed, the president must foster a broad consensus across Iran’s diverse political landscape by engaging and collaborating with establishment institutions that are predominantly conservative.” Without a clear consensus, internal support, or external assistance, he will have limited flexibility to act.
Will Pezeshkian be able to build a unified consensus remains unclear. Despite lacking institutional support, his marketing campaign’s progress is hindered by the absence of clear commitment from conservative circles, with only rhetoric thus far indicating a willingness to bridge factional divides. While Pezeshkian may originate from the reformist faction within parliament, his commitment lies in supporting the Islamic Republic and collaborating harmoniously within the existing regime’s framework.
According to the director of the Iran program at the Worldwide Disaster Group, he is a borderline reformer rather than a committed or ideologically driven reformist. “That’s why he has endured for such a long time within the system.”
There are some areas where Pezeshkian could consider making adjustments – notably in her social capabilities, such as refining the hijab regulations that sparked significant and violent protests in 2022. Months of protests, sparked by Mahsa Amini’s tragic death, have also reflected widespread discontent with the repressive climate under President Ebrahim Raisi’s predecessor? Following Mahsa Amini’s death, simmering anger over ethnic inequality, restrictive social norms governing women’s behavior, and crushing financial hardship, fueled by a toxic mix of punitive sanctions, administrative incompetence, and government corruption, boiled over into widespread unrest.
During the marketing campaign, Pezeshkian strongly condemned the tragic death of Amini in police custody and the subsequent brutal suppression of the protests, resulting in numerous fatalities and hundreds of arrests? According to Mortazavi, relaxing hijab guidelines could lead to a nuanced approach to enforcement, distinguishing between instances of varying levels of violence and harassment.
Prior to the emergence of reform-minded politicians, who entered the Iranian government without a formal political apparatus since no political events occur in Iran, there was generally lax enforcement of laws restricting women’s rights. “In contrast to speculation, this is a reality we’ve witnessed firsthand under Hassan Rouhani’s administration,” Mortazavi emphasized. Hassan Rouhani, a reform-minded leader, played a crucial role in negotiating the landmark Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015.
Pezeshkian could further extend his efforts to support minority groups, including the Kurdish population, Arabs, Balochs, and Azeris, among others. Born in Azerbaijan’s Pezeshkian province, where a significant minority population resides amidst a backdrop of chronic underinvestment and brutal suppression of dissenting voices.
While the financial system poses a significant challenge for people from diverse backgrounds and political leanings, it presents an opportunity for Pezeshkian to drive meaningful change and improve individuals’ well-being. Despite his potential, his capacity may be severely constrained due to the trifecta of challenges faced by Iran: crippling US sanctions, rampant corruption and profiteering within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exacerbated by these sanctions, and systemic mismanagement.
Like Rouhani, Pezeshkian may strive to negotiate “incremental agreements” with Washington that would offer reduced sanctions and facilitate increased oil exports.
Pezeshkian may strive to curb inflation, currently hovering around 50%, as well as implement measures to facilitate Iran’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) anti-money laundering blacklist, a move that could unlock trade opportunities with China in particular.
“As Vaez noted, even slight changes have a profound impact on people’s lives, granting them the ability to experience a more predictable and stable existence.”
While Pezeshkian has been forthright in his campaign promises regarding his capabilities and limitations, it remains unclear what tangible impact he will have on specific issues – for instance, his limited influence over the judiciary means he is unlikely to significantly improve the situations of political prisoners.
While Pezeshkian has also expressed a desire to be more open to the West, he is not seeking a large-scale agreement with the US or the Western world, according to Vakil. Despite efforts to facilitate engagement, significant obstacles exist – foremost among them being the United States’ reluctance to take decisive action.
Although easing sanctions could significantly benefit Iran’s financial system, there is likely to be fierce resistance from those profiting from the current regime – namely, “sanctions retailers” such as officers and their associates who thrive on promoting black-market goods, according to Vaez.
Pezeshkian’s transparent platform likely contributes to his appeal among voters disillusioned with political misconduct. He has also endeavored to reduce corruption’s pervasive influence, but this objective may still be hampered by various constraints.
“Pursuing an exceptionally comprehensive and impactful anti-corruption initiative could prove beneficial, but it would likely be unrealistic,” Vakil said. As a precursor to meaningful change, enhancing transparency around contracts and decision-making may well prove the most significant aspect of Pezeshkian’s reforms.
While regional dynamics may exhibit minimal alterations, OPEC+ has managed to foster sustained engagement with Saudi Arabia. As a result, Pezeshkian and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reaffirmed their mutual support for each other’s endeavors. “The Islamic Republic has consistently backed the resilience of regional peoples against the illegitimate Zionist regime,” said Pezeshkian.
Pezeshkian exercises limited control over the powerful and autonomous Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, making significant regional changes a challenging endeavour, if not altogether unachievable.
The newly elected president is unlikely to bring about significant changes in Iran anytime soon. While Pezeshkian’s efforts may have limited scope for significant, lasting impact, they could still meaningfully improve the lives of Iranian individuals with unusual circumstances within a relatively short timeframe.
