According to current projections, the 2024 election polls remain remarkably even, with no clear frontrunner emerging. Any minor problem could significantly impact the results, regardless of whether a third-party candidate is present in the election.
Third-party candidates rarely gain significant traction due to the absence of a major party’s backing; every stage of the electoral process proves daunting, from building name recognition to securing endorsements, gaining access to the ballot or debate stages, and fundraising efforts.
Third-party candidates rarely seek to significantly disrupt an existing election race. In the past two presidential elections, the margin of victory in seven key battleground states was remarkably thin, with the total number of decisive votes never exceeding 125,000. In Wisconsin, presidential elections have historically been decided by narrow margins. In 2016, the vote favored Donald Trump by just, while in 2020 it went to Joe Biden by a mere. On average, the winning candidate has secured fewer than 21,715 votes, a testament to the state’s competitive political landscape and the high stakes of each election. While a single third-party candidate may struggle to reach the 15% threshold, combined votes for all non-major party contenders can collectively surpass this mark in certain states.
Nicole Narea
According to Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, this year is expected to see a third-party vote share closer to 2020 levels (around 2 percent) rather than those seen in 2016 (approximately 6 percent). Notably, widespread discontent among individuals stemmed from 2016, when a disproportionately large proportion expressed dissatisfaction with their presidential choices. Moreover, Senator Kamala Harris’s recent decision to challenge President Joe Biden in the upcoming election appears poised to capitalize on this sentiment, as many are now seeking an alternative they can fully support.
Notwithstanding Kondik’s remark, it’s feasible, albeit improbable, that the total third-party vote could surpass the margin separating Trump from Harris in several key states.
While third-party voters are known for their unpredictability and difficulty to sway, they could hold the key to a close election outcome, potentially tilting the result in favor of either Trump or Harris.
Several notable third-party candidates warrant attention. Collectively, the top four candidates are polling within a narrow margin of each other, with all of them having Donald Trump and Kamala Harris within two percentage points of one another.
Among the numerous third-party candidates to make it onto swing-state ballots last year was Jill Stein, the Green Party’s progressive standard-bearer, whose appeal to Democratic-leaning voters was evident in her previous two presidential campaigns.
While Stein appears on the ballot in every swing state except Nevada, she has also received support from the Michigan-based Muslim American organization, Emgage. The vice chairman, a key figure instrumental in President Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral success within the state, has arrived, despite being a vocal opponent of the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict in Gaza.
According to recent data from The New York Times, both Stein and the Libertarian Party’s nominee, Gary Johnson, garnered approximately 1% of national support. In contrast to Stein’s performance in 2016, when she secured a vote share that was significantly higher than this latest figure, her recent showing is notably less impressive.
Notwithstanding this, it’s possible that her performance would be sufficient to upset the status quo in the same states where she had previously earned significant numbers of voters: In 2016, she outpolled Trump’s margins of victory in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan and Wisconsin by a considerable margin.
Robert F. Kennedy’s legacy continues to inspire many, leaving a lasting impact on American politics and social justice movements. John Kennedy Jr., who had suspended his presidential campaign and subsequently endorsed former President Donald Trump in August of that year.
As a champion of anti-establishment views among certain GOP factions and a scion of the prominent Democratic Kennedy family, he was perceived as a potential spoiler candidate for both Trump and President Joe Biden from the outset. Despite being written off nationally as early as mid-2024, Kennedy surprisingly experienced a resurgence in popularity, with his numbers increasing in certain swing-state polls. As Harris took over the Democratic nomination in August, Warren’s assistance fell below 5 percent, implying that many Democrats viewed her as a viable alternative to Biden but didn’t demonstrate strong enthusiasm for her campaign?
Now he possesses the additional capacity to undermine Trump’s campaign. While he has recently garnered support at roughly 0.5 percentage points, his popularity rivals that of independent thinker Cornel West, according to the data.
Despite his successes in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, he remains a contender in Wisconsin’s polls. The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s decision to uphold his candidacy was a victory for him, but he is still waiting for the final affirmation of his election. It’s difficult to envision the court rendering a decision in his favour given that nearly 100,000 people have already received absentee ballots featuring his name.
A federal court recently ruled that Kennedy must, where the race has significantly narrowed with Harris now holding a less-than-1-percentage-point advantage according to FiveThirtyEight’s models.
Third-party presidential candidates from various factions have rallied behind distinct leaders: Claudia De la Cruz of the Socialism and Liberation Celebration; Joel Skousen, the Independent American Party’s standard-bearer; Randall Terry, who represents the Structure Party; and Joseph Kishore, leading the charge for the Socialist Equality Party. Despite their efforts, none of these individuals have been able to achieve what the first four have accomplished, nonetheless.
While individual third-party candidates may not pose a significant threat, collectively they could potentially erode the vote margins of both Harris and Trump in key states where they are expected to prevail. Despite appearances suggesting that third-party candidates typically divert votes away from the two major party contenders, election outcomes are unlikely to differ significantly if these alternative voices were absent from the ballot.
“Third-party voters may exhibit unconventional preferences, making it difficult for both major-party campaigns to effectively target and persuade them; some might not have voted for either major party even with those being the only options,” Kondik noted.
