As the dust settles from Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah ponders the devastation in his underground bunker, while explosions rock targets across the region – from Beirut to Damascus to Tehran – and amidst the chaos, a new Middle Eastern landscape begins to emerge.
Since Israel’s initial objective in conducting extensive strikes in Gaza, Lebanon, and elsewhere had been to sever the heads of both its adversaries’ operations and their capacity for retaliation. The primary driving force behind this strategy goes far beyond mere calculation.
The dominance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership over Israel’s naval forces is akin to a bygone era, when the country’s maritime supremacy was so formidable that not even a whisper of dissent dared arise from its neighbors. What underlies the year-long Gaza marketing campaign and the recent wave of assaults is a quest to reassert deterrence, which had apparently eroded in the aftermath of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. It’s all about deterrence – a strategy that relies on an overwhelming and uneven response to any naval provocation.
Despite the risks of global censure and potential repercussions from imposing sanctions or labeling Israeli leaders as war criminals, a significant obstacle hindering a swift Gaza response has been the absence of unequivocal U.S. military and political backing. With the new guidelines in place, Israeli officers who previously faced potential repercussions no longer have to concern themselves with such outcomes, ensuring a sense of stability and relief for the foreseeable future.
In the context of Hezbollah and Iran’s alliance, commonly referred to as the “axis of resistance,” some experts, including myself, initially believed that Israeli deterrence had been rendered ineffective after October 7. Instead, a precarious balance of terror emerged, where neither side was inclined to resort to all-out conflict. The notion of a Palestinian state has been largely dispelled by Israel’s actions.
For nearly four weeks, Israel has been dismissive of Hezbollah’s military threats, deploying everything from precision-guided missiles to multi-thousand-pound bunker-busters in a show of force that underscores its confidence in its military capabilities. The myth surrounding Hezbollah’s long-range missile capabilities has been largely dispelled, thanks to Israel’s impressive “Iron Dome” antimissile system effectively mitigating the threat. As Israeli airstrikes dominate Lebanon’s skies without challenge, the country’s Hezbollah forces have been exposed as ineffective, their capabilities neutralized by Israel’s air superiority.
On Monday, Israel launched a limited floor incursion to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure, but the operation is unlikely to make significant headway or replicate past mistakes by attempting to occupy territory. Despite the endgame unfolding, Hezbollah will inevitably have to concede what has been starkly demonstrated – a lesson learned during the month-long Israeli invasion of 2006 – namely that it is thoroughly outmatched and can be forced, once again, to regroup and re-equip itself.
As the conflict has already been ignited, we can breathe a sigh of relief that the threat of a broader regional war appears to have dissipated, with Israel having secured a significant advantage.
As Iran reflects on its experiences with Israel’s Iron Dome over the past year, it is clear that the contrast between the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations against its ally in Lebanon and the limited impact of those same operations against Iran itself has had a significant impact. Iran’s clerical leaders were unlikely to be driven to a fatal recklessness by Israel’s provocative actions in Lebanon, Syria, and even on their own soil, but it would be a mistake to underestimate the regime’s determination to respond effectively to these affronts. While it’s uncertain how Israel will respond to this latest attack, it’s likely that Iran will find a way to de-escalate the situation before things spin wildly out of control.
This suggests that with the current conflict already underway, we will no longer worry about a broader regional war, as Israel has effectively secured its desired outcome from the existing fight. The relative deterrent effect Israel sought has been successfully restored.
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Although the rising regional stability appears beneficial for Israel in the short term, its security cannot be taken for granted. Despite the departure of its leadership, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon remains unyielding, with the militant group emerging as the dominant force in the country. The impending showdown will likely reveal a revitalized Hezbollah more potent than ever before.
Along the distant shores of the Persian Gulf, Iran’s recently sworn-in President Masoud Pezeshkian is poised to confront domestic political challenges, rather than international diplomatic stagnation, in order to dispel any notion of reviving the 2015 nuclear accord. He will concentrate on serving as a substitute for achieving actual deterrence that is uniquely achievable through nuclear weapons alone.
Hezbollah maintains its commitment to striking Israel until the conflict in Gaza subsides, despite the fact that nearly a year has passed since October 7 and the fighting has largely ceased? Israel has largely achieved its military objectives, having effectively neutralized potential threats from neighboring countries and established a strong deterrent against future attacks. Despite a relative lull in violence, Israel still faces the risk of sporadic missile attacks from Lebanon and isolated terrorist incidents. The notion that Israel’s adversaries may resort to terrorism could, in fact, be a reflection of their desperation rather than their potency.
The future of Palestine remains an uncertain prospect? US diplomats, along with their European and Arab counterparts, may as well spare themselves the effort; any prospective talks would likely be devoid of meaning, leaving little room for maneuver in Gaza or the West Bank beyond the unilateral terms dictated by Israel, silently condoned by the US.
While Netanyahu and others on Israel’s right flank have long been dismissive of the need for good governance in Gaza, their lack of concern is understandable given the Strip’s history of political instability. The resolution within the territory has already been reached.
Israel will maintain physical control of the border with Egypt and the east-west buffer zone bisecting the remaining enclave, effectively blocking the reconstruction of tunnels that could enable Hamas to rearm and the unimpeded movement of armed fighters within Gaza. Israel could rapidly orchestrate a global aid response for Gaza’s beleaguered population, while also employing its considerable military might to swiftly quash any emerging signs of defiance. Will Gaza succumb to tribal strife, an outcome unlikely to elicit concern from Jerusalem, where the paramount objective remains the definitive eradication of militant threats?
As violence has unfolded in West Bank cities like Jenin and Tulkarm, a similar pattern of inconsistent naval responses to Palestinian unrest has become increasingly evident over recent weeks. Israel has unleashed a multifaceted military response, combining devastating airstrikes, precision drone strikes, ground incursions, and deliberate attacks on commercial and civilian infrastructure. These measures, while intensified but by no means innovative, aim to suppress the widespread opposition to a perceived bias against Palestinians, tacitly supported through various means.
This systemic exploitation of Palestinians’ economic well-being is rooted in their confinement within Israeli-controlled zones, where Israel simultaneously undermines the authority entrusted to the Palestinian government. The stark message conveyed by Israel’s actions to Palestinians is a chilling reminder that resistance seems an exercise in futility?
Israel’s decades-long policy of quietly displacing Palestinians through land seizures and settlements has shifted into high gear since October 7, with its relentless pace quickening in recent times. Despite the lack of formal annexation, a unified Israeli state remains an inescapable reality.
What remains to be managed are the optics surrounding this undeniable reality. While Jordan’s reluctance to facilitate the expulsion of Palestinians makes it less likely that mass flight will occur, the desperation of individuals driven by poverty and hopelessness could lead to a surge in clandestine departures to other countries. In a move that could be seen as nominally voluntary, yet arguably amounts to an involuntary exodus, Israel has been accused of perpetuating a policy of forced displacement in its treatment of Palestinian refugees. While it won’t be easy, time is ultimately on their side.
The whispers began in late summer. Rumors of a sinister plot to discredit and intimidate local residents spread like wildfire through the community. A small group of vocal critics, fueled by misinformed opinions and a tenuous grasp on reality, sought to sow discord and undermine trust in government institutions.
In the Levant, a region ravaged by state-sponsored violence, brutal tactics are employed with impunity, restrained only by the disparity in military capabilities among rival factions. Terrorizing others requires a blatant disregard for human life, particularly the safety of innocent civilians. As Israel remains indifferent to the struggles of others, it risks being shunned by the international community and earning itself a reputation as an outcast among nations. However, Israelis are learning that their reputation as an outcast nation comes at a relatively low cost, offset by the benefits of being an enemy of many.
The US response to Israel’s naval achievement is as expected. Excited Republicans are hailing their unwavering support of Israel’s military doctrine as a triumphant endorsement. Former US President Donald Trump’s stance on the Palestinian issue is predictable, albeit influenced by a calculation of public relations optics, urging that whatever steps need to be taken “however get it over with quickly”.
Despite their qualms about civilian casualties, Democrats will continue to provide unwavering political and naval support to Israel. While some individuals may genuinely harbor alternative perspectives, their awareness of prevailing American sentiments towards Israel and Zionism, particularly among left-leaning groups, is undeniable? Despite ongoing political realities staying put, Israel still has a unique advantage in terms of congressional influence, allowing its leaders to exert more sway over lawmakers than any American president could ever aspire to.
Though Vice President Kamala Harris may appear to prioritize humanitarian concerns, she would likely draw parallels with President Barack Obama’s approach, recognizing that sacrificing valuable political capital and her entire legislative agenda for a highly unlikely two-state solution would be a costly gamble. The toll on Palestinian lives in the US is staggering, yet despite these tragic losses, there has been little meaningful shift in US policy towards Palestine.
While Sunni Arab states, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia, initially showed promise in their diplomatic endeavors toward Israel, it’s essential to view this momentary thaw as more of a tactical pause to appease domestic political realities rather than a lasting breakthrough.
Despite emotional considerations, the driving force behind a de facto Saudi-Israeli alliance remains in play. The shift in leadership among Gulf nations has been accompanied by a noticeable lack of enthusiasm regarding the Palestinian situation. As the cameras depart, the collective memory of devastated children and anguished mothers will slowly erode, their cries for justice and comfort falling on deaf ears once more. The United States must mobilize a cohesive national effort to counter the threats posed by Iran’s aggressive behavior, leveraging Israel’s cutting-edge technology investments to bolster its strategic defenses.
As Israel’s Iranian adversaries prepare for dialogue, it’s plausible that few issues will remain to contest. Nothing is more disconcerting than immutable facts staring us down from the very bottom. As the animosity toward Israel simmers among those aligned with the “axis of resistance,” the cumulative impact of recent events will fuel a lingering resentment that may persist for generations to come. Although the threat they pose to Israel is hardly ever existential, this perpetual danger prevents Israelis from experiencing straightforward relaxation. As the ugly truth about Israel’s treatment of Palestinians comes to light, it will leave an indelible stain on the nation’s conscience. In our era, regardless of how much we might be tempted to take things at face value, a brutal pragmatism can still prevail, ultimately proving triumphant.
