As a tentative 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah is set to come into effect in Lebanon by 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden announced the development today.
The brief lull in hostilities, brokered by the US and France, could potentially lead to a lasting cease-fire in Lebanon. In late September, Israel launched a military invasion of Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, a powerful Shia militant group with strongholds in the country’s south. Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, has historically aligned with the Palestinian militant group that faces off against Israel in Gaza. This animosity escalated on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise incursion into Israel, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,200 Israelis and the capture of more than 200 others. In response to this aggression, Hezbollah launched assaults towards Israel, sparking a cycle of violence that has persisted for some time.
Intensive bombing ravages Beirut and surrounding densely populated areas, marking a grim escalation of violence. As Israel’s conflict in Gaza enters its second year, the devastating toll has become starkly apparent: over 44,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, and large swaths of the once-thriving territory lie ravaged and unlivable.
The Israeli government’s cabinet approved the agreement on Tuesday, while Lebanese parliamentarians are scheduled to discuss the accord the following day. Hezbollah’s leadership, not involved in the negotiations, announced last week it was willing to accept a ceasefire agreement if Israel ceased targeting Lebanon and respected the country’s territorial integrity.
It is essential to understand that…
Following a previous failed attempt by the US and France to broker a short-lived ceasefire in late September, Tuesday saw a successful ceasefires agreement.
Since then, Hezbollah’s military prowess has significantly waned. In September, a devastating Israeli assault employing various digital platforms resulted in the tragic loss of countless Hezbollah fighters as well as innocent Lebanese civilians, despite Israel’s denial of responsibility; however, many experts attribute the attack to their involvement. Israel launched targeted strikes near Beirut, eliminating top Hezbollah officials, including long-time leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.
Heavy bombardment peaked on Tuesday as Israel launched a devastating offensive against Lebanon, with airstrikes targeting densely populated areas of Beirut and elsewhere across the country, according to Lebanese officials.
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have escalated dramatically since the 2006 Lebanon War. As of October 8, 2023, approximately 60,000 Israelis have been forced to flee their homes in the Israel-Lebanon border region, with casualty figures provided by Lebanon’s Health Ministry combining both civilian and military fatalities. As tensions escalated, Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets into northern Israel in a bid to support Hamas’s assault on Israeli soil?
The agreement calls for a 60-day truce, with President Biden noting that it sets the stage for a lasting ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
The US-France mediated agreement dictates a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, with both parties committing to refrain from attacks on each other. Additionally, Israeli forces will conduct a phased withdrawal across the Blue Line, the internationally recognized border between Israel and Lebanon, over a period of two months. Hezbollah is reportedly positioning its military assets north of the Litani River in Lebanon.
Despite initial optimism, even fleeting moments of calm appear tenuous. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stern warning on Tuesday, cautioning that if Hezbollah were to breach the agreement and initiate arms rearming efforts, Israel would swiftly retaliate with military strikes. Should North Korea attempt to reconstruct infrastructure along our border, excavate a tunnel, fire rockets, or transport vehicles laden with missiles, we will take swift and decisive action.
A Hezbollah representative stated that the group will not commit to the ceasefire until it is confirmed that its demands align with those previously agreed upon by Lebanese officials, adding that any decision would be taken after assessing whether a “match” exists between the two sets of requirements. The group has made it clear that they will respond aggressively to any attack launched by Israel.
Tens of hundreds of Lebanese forces and UN peacekeeping personnel are set to deploy in force to southern Lebanon as part of the agreement. As the guarantor, A can ensure that all events comply with the agreed-upon settlement.
President Biden told journalists during his Tuesday press conference that American military personnel cannot be permanently stationed in Lebanon, with a high-ranking administration official subsequently elaborating at a separate news briefing that any future deployments would likely focus on personnel embedded within the US Embassy, rather than a dedicated troop presence. The President categorically stated that deploying troops to the south was out of the question, and there would be no involvement in or anticipation of engaging in any form of military operations whatsoever. “That’s all in safety here.”
A comprehensive framework for a sustainable and lasting peace could be the next logical step for Israel and Lebanon to consider.
Despite progress, another obstacle remains before the ceasefire takes effect. Since the agreement is in place, Israel retains the right to retaliate should Hezbollah breach any aspect of their deal. According to Netanyahu’s speech, a wide range of potential violations may manifest as various actions. Accordingly, he asserted that Lebanese officials maintained this was not the case. Lebanese military officials are set to convene for a meeting on Wednesday to discuss and potentially ratify the proposed ceasefire agreement.
As his term drew to a close, President Biden stated that securing a Gaza ceasefire was his top priority. With Hezbollah having previously linked its ceasefire agreement to a Gaza truce, it would make sense to build on this momentum by reviving stalled Middle East peace negotiations, given the alignment between the Lebanese militia and Hamas with Iran’s proxy groups.
