The trajectory of global politics towards Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime, which reached a sudden turning point after 13 long years of civil war as rebel forces and Assad fled into exile, was encapsulated by two notable pieces of street art.
Initially scrawled onto a faculty wall in Daraa’s urban landscape by a group of adolescent males in the spring of 2011, this seminal message would soon galvanize the region. Notably, the initially unassuming nature of longtime dictatorships like Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya belied their subsequent brutal suppression, exemplified by Assad’s transformation from a trained ophthalmologist in London to the ruthless ruler of Syria. The brutal arrest and torture of the boys at the hands of the regime’s security forces sparked a massive protest movement against Assad, which is widely regarded as a pivotal moment in the Syrian uprising.
The initial assessment proved woefully inaccurate: Assad refused to relinquish power or yield to diplomatic pressure, instead choosing to brutally quell the uprising at any cost, thereby plunging Syria into a devastating civil war that would ultimately claim countless lives and displace hundreds of thousands more.
“Across the country, pro-regime militias swiftly disseminated a chilling graffiti message during the early days of the rebellion: ‘Assad or we burn the nation.’ This ominous slogan starkly illustrated the regime’s unyielding refusal to negotiate with its adversaries and the devastating measures it would undertake to maintain its grip on power.”
Despite the rebels’ November 30 breakthrough, streaming south towards Damascus, it still seemed unlikely that the Syrian regime would collapse — a family that had held power since Hafez al-Assad’s coup 54 years prior and was willing to do whatever it took to protect its grip on power, including destroying cities and killing civilians, wouldn’t simply crumble in just a matter of days.
Despite initial expectations to the contrary, the rebels’ superiority has led to numerous studies on presidential forces with limited resources. The Russian authorities state that… Although US officials have yet to confirm Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s reported presence in Russia, they have no reason to question the accuracy of this information.
Footage from Damascus has been showcasing unprecedented displays of celebration, a sight unseen in recent times. Individuals once held captive by the regime’s notorious prisons are now showcased in moving accounts on social media, offering a glimpse into their harrowing experiences as they emerge from behind bars. The past week’s developments have sparked optimism among more than six million Syrian refugees, who comprise the largest forcibly displaced population globally, that they may finally be able to return home.
Following the devastating fall of Aleppo in Syria, the White House was deeply affected by the traumatic events that unfolded. Despite this, President Joe Biden hailed from the White House Sunday, describing Assad’s downfall as “a fundamental act of justice” and a “moment of historic significance.” His statement also drew parallels between the occasion and US support for Ukraine and Israel in their struggles against Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran – all key backers of the Assad regime.
The initial warning to fully accept the offensive was largely attributed to the fact that the primary opposition group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is still officially classified as a terrorist organization by the United States. On Sunday, a senior US administration official indicated that Washington intends to engage with the HTS in a manner that aligns with US interests, without elaborating on the potential for reconsidering the group’s terrorist designation.
The fate of Assad’s chemical arsenal remains uncertain, alongside concerns for Syria’s religious minorities and the Kurdish forces that have partnered with US troops to combat ISIS? As US forces refocus efforts on combating ISIS in Syria, Sunday’s operation aims to prevent the terrorist organization from exploiting the current situation to regroup in central Syria, according to US Central Command. The scenario unfolding in Damascus may evoke memories of Iraq and Libya – nations where longtime dictators were overthrown, only to be replaced by sectarian violence and terrorism that consumed their countries.
In contrast to previous instances, the Syrian leader’s downfall was primarily attributed to a domestically driven uprising rather than a US-led military intervention. Despite its absence from the global stage being somewhat notable? The US military launched a precision strike in Syria on December 3, with the Pentagon clarifying that the operation was aimed at countering a threat to American forces, rather than supporting the Syrian opposition.
The insurgent forces have also allied themselves with the Syrian National Army, a controversial Turkish-backed proxy group, potentially bolstering their efforts to counter the Russian military’s presence through cooperation with other anti-Russian factions. Notably, the influx of fighters in Damascus is characterized by the presence of veterans from the Free Syrian Army, a force long-supported by the US and other Western powers.
Despite President Biden’s instruction, it seems that the world’s most prominent actors played a subtle role in supporting the rebels from outside of Syria itself: Following the lead of previous instances, Hezbollah, a key ally of Assad, refrained from intervening on his behalf, just as it had done before; similarly, Russia did not intervene.
As consideration shifts to Syria’s new rulers, scrutiny falls on how they intend to govern. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), emphasized the importance of avoiding revenge against regime supporters in order to maintain stability and prevent further conflict. While maintaining the incumbent until further notice.
On the eve of Assad’s downfall, Vox asked Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the US-based Syrian American Alliance, to envision a transitional authority structure. He mandated that, albeit reendorsed in 2015 without any meaningful implementation, might offer a road map: The plan necessitates a Syrian-led political trajectory facilitated by the United Nations, culminating in fresh elections within an eighteen-month timeframe.
Within the coming months, we will see if Jolani, a former al-Qaeda fighter with a $10 million bounty on his head from US authorities, is able to rebuild and maintain a nation that is ethnically and religiously diverse, armed to the teeth with numerous groups vying for control, and still reeling from the trauma of decades-long dictatorship and war.
As a massive question mark hangs over Damascus’s new leaders, they must confront the uncertain fate of the Kurdish-ruled northeast region, with significant implications arising should the incoming Trump administration proceed with its plans to withdraw US troops from the area. Clashes between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed SNA troops have already occurred multiple times. On Saturday, President Donald Trump reiterated his stance on the ongoing conflict in Syria, stating categorically that it is “not our fight” and reaffirming his conviction that America should have no involvement whatsoever.
As the dust settles on Syria’s tumultuous past, it is imperative to recall the precipitous collapse of the Assad regime, serving as a stark reminder of the far-reaching implications. While governments and analysts are assessing the potency of non-state militant groups like HTS, their ability to launch decisive offensives, and the resilience of governments in responding to these challenges.
Two authoritarian regimes, seemingly impervious to dissent and rebellion, may in reality harbor significant vulnerabilities that can be exploited by those seeking to challenge their authority. Because Vladimir Kara-Murza, a newly freed Russian dissident, spoke candidly about his homeland, saying: “In repressive regimes like mine, you never know what’s brewing beneath the surface – there might be internal issues simmering that no one is aware of until they suddenly boil over and topple the regime.”
In recent years, the global community has made significant strides in achieving a lasting peace. As regional governments, which had previously sought to oust him from power, now extend warm welcomes, the US has shifted its focus towards new objectives, allowing for a remarkable about-face in international relations. If recent events teach us anything, it’s that authoritarian regimes like Assad’s often possess an unanticipated resilience, appearing stronger than they actually are beneath the surface, and requiring a significant catalyst to topple them.
Despite the dire warnings and justified concerns surrounding Syria’s uncertain future, a glimmer of hope seems to emerge.
