Groundhog Day arrived on Sunday, Feb. 2, and Punxsutawney Phil, probably the most well-known groundhog prognosticator, noticed his shadow, thus predicting six extra weeks of winter climate. Boooo, say these of us already sick of the chilly. However there are some questions on Phil’s accuracy. The truth is, an opposum named Sand Mountain Sam in Boaz, Alabama predicted an early spring this yr, when he did not see his shadow. Simply how correct are these animal prognosticators, anyway?
The Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration checked Punxsutawney Phil’s observe file final yr and located the fuzzy ambassador’s predictions missing. This yr, NOAA took a deeper dive into Groundhog Day outcomes and graded the work of 19 groundhogs and groundhog surrogates to find out the accuracy of their predictions. Spoiler: Phil got here in seventeenth.
A groundhog nibbles on some vegetation in Virginia.
NOAA ranks the groundhogs
NOAA set just a few floor guidelines. The groundhogs and “various groundhogs” should have been prognosticating for at the least 20 years and should even have been energetic as of Feb. 2, 2024. The rivals included 13 groundhogs, three taxidermied groundhogs, one never-seen creature presumed to be a groundhog, a prairie canine statue and a tortoise.
NOAA used information from its Nationwide Facilities for Environmental Data, which maintains an archive of ocean, climate and local weather information. The company in contrast the groundhogs’ observe data with US March temperature averages from 2005 to 2024.
All hail Staten Island Chuck, a woodchuck on the Staten Island Zoo in New York Metropolis. Chuck, often known as Charles G. Hogg, topped the rankings with 85% accuracy. He famously bit the mayor in 2009 when Michael Bloomberg tried to coax him out for a Groundhog Day ceremony.
The subsequent-best groundhog was Common Beauregard Lee from the Dauset Trails Nature Heart in Jackson, Georgia with 80% accuracy. Third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of a prairie canine in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil got here in at 75% accuracy. Groundhogs do not dwell in Wyoming, however prairie canine do. The prognostication rules are the identical. If Lander Lil “sees” a shadow on Groundhog Day, then extra winter is predicted.
How Punxsutawney Phil fared
Mojave Max is a desert tortoise just like the one pictured right here in a Nationwide Park Service picture.
General, 14 of the groundhogs had 50% accuracy or higher. Poor Punxsutawney Phil managed solely 35% accuracy, touchdown him close to the underside of the rankings. At the least he is extra correct than Mojave Max, a desert tortoise on the Springs Protect in Nevada who took the final spot with 25% accuracy.
The rating won’t be truthful to Mojave Max, although. The tortoise does not get paraded round on Groundhog Day. His predictions are based mostly on when he emerges from brumation (like hibernation for reptiles). Max will get up someday between February and April every year.
“Hotter temperatures, longer daytime and his personal inside clock are elements identified to contribute to his emergence yearly,” the Clark County Desert Conservation program mentioned. His look marks the unofficial begin of spring for southern Nevada.
Groundhog Day has been a practice at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania because the late 1800s and it is nonetheless going sturdy. NOAA’s debunking of woodchuck climate forecasting does not detract from the enjoyable of the celebration. What Phil lacks in accuracy he makes up for in sheer fame, cuteness and charisma. So go forward and cheer for Phil, however perhaps base your spring plans on a rodent from Staten Island reasonably than Punxsutawney.
