Yuri Smityuk/TASS
A Russian Progress cargo spacecraft was successfully launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan at dawn on Thursday local time. The mission proved profitable, with Russia having successfully launched numerous spacecraft previously. Despite its relatively modest size, this mission held significance due to its place as Russia’s ninth orbital launch of the year.
With current trends, it appears likely that Russia’s residential property programme will achieve its lowest number of launches for a single year since 1961. When Yuri Gagarin embarked on a historic journey, marking the dawn of humanity’s foray into space exploration.
The proliferation of these issues is attributed to various factors, including Western leaders’ decision to disassociate themselves from Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, following Ukraine’s invasion. The impact of this development on Russia’s house program has been devastating, with consequences only recently coming to light.
Recently, Andrei Yelchaninov, Roscosmos’ primary deputy director, granted a series of interviews to leading Russian media outlets. Despite limitations inherent in reporting on state-controlled media, these findings remain compelling. The most striking aspect of these conversations is that… A devastating house fire in Russia has left a trail of destruction, raising questions about the country’s ability to recover from such tragedies. Translated for Ars by Rob Mitchell, this piece provides insight into the aftermath of the disaster and the steps Russia may take to rebuild.
A monetary disaster
Rising from the ashes of monetary disaster proves a daunting task, Russian officials admit, with Yelchaninov conceding to Interfax that progress is slow going. The cancellation of contracts with uncooperative partners has cost Roscosmos a staggering $2.1 billion, or 180 billion rubles, in losses alone. In the face of unprecedented crisis, we are compelled to build a novel financial framework from scratch.
Due to these factors, Russia’s housing market has been operating at a deficit and is unlikely to recover until at least 2025. Russian aggression in Ukraine culminated with United Launch Alliance’s decision to discontinue purchasing RD-180 rocket engines from NPO Energomash, manufacturers based in Russia. As a consequence of waning market demand for Russia’s Proton and Soyuz rockets, the Russian government has been forced to provide financial support to these segments of Roscosmos in order to maintain their viability.
The corporations are currently undergoing a financial revitalization process, having received state subsidies several years ago to ensure their viability. They are now seeking out new sales markets and increased workloads, according to Yelchaninov. The topic of potentially marketing additional Russian-built engines in the United States is not currently under consideration.
Following Russia’s military incursion into Ukraine, referred to euphemistically as “a specific naval operation” by Yelchaninov, Moscow sought alternative markets for its exports. “After the start of the SMO, we were forced to pivot from our traditional partners in Europe and the US, with whom we had a few years of interaction, to adapt to new global directives encompassing countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia,” he said.
During the interview, Yelchaninov verified that Russia has committed to participating in the International Space Station program for at least until 2028. By 2030, NASA aims to extend the International Space Station’s operational lifespan, with plans to decommission the aging facility around that date by sending it into a controlled re-entry using a customized Crew Dragon capsule.
Instead of pursuing partnerships with US-based organizations from within its own country, Yelchaninov indicated that Russia’s domestic housing initiative will focus on collaborative efforts with China, rather than competing with other nations in the region. The crucial hurdle in our bilateral cooperation lies in establishing a global lunar station, a joint endeavor towards attracting international partners.
Huge plans, large delays?
Russia is pressing ahead with plans for its long-awaited “Russian Orbital Station,” or ROS. Plans are underway for the 2027 launch of a scientific and energy module, with four core modules expected to reach orbit by 2030. Expansions are anticipated to occur in the early 2030s, marking a significant milestone in the development of the project. It must be acknowledged that these proposed deadlines are, at best, ambitious.
Speculating on the horizon, Yelchaninov discussed a plethora of prospective rocket endeavors, alongside the Amur-LNG vehicle and the Corona space launch system.
By 2026, Russia planned to unveil its innovative Amur rocket, featuring a reusable first stage powered by methane. This electric vehicle was designed to achieve a comparable price point to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket, positioning itself as a more affordable alternative in the market. Roscosmos plans to develop first-stage reuse in a phased approach, with two distinct stages. A Grasshopper-like program would initially examine the touchdown technologies involved before proceeding to experiments with a full-scale booster. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely you’ll encounter Amur anytime soon. Russian and Kazakh military officers are actually situated in the design phase of a launch site project at Baikonur, rather than actively building anything.
Roscosmos aims to develop a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) rocket called Corona in the future, as per Yelchaninov’s statement. This appears to be a antiquated approach that’s more than three times outdated.
“We’ve already explored the demand for a novel booster of this kind,” said Yelchaninov. “We’re simplifying access to housing by over 10 times and unlocking entirely new ways to efficiently deliver goods, ultimately transforming our mindset towards housing-as-a-service.”
As the majestic Corona takes to the skies?
