While early voting numbers suggest a strong lead for former President and Republican candidates, this does not necessarily guarantee their victory on Election Day.
Traditionally, Democrats have exhibited a propensity for casting early ballots in states where this option is available; yet, just over a week prior to the election, Republicans have narrowed the gap, with Democrats only marginally ahead of their GOP counterparts nationwide.
The 2020 presidential election witnessed a stark partisan divide in early voting, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led many states to adapt their electoral processes. Rhetoric surrounding early voting in 2020 was a subject of Trump’s frequent criticism, further exacerbating the existing imbalance. With the pandemic seemingly behind us, Trump has undergone an unexpected transformation; previously, he often decried the practice of early voting by mail as flawed, but now he also.
That encouragement now appears to be yielding returns: In response to NBC’s request, a significant number of individuals have taken up the challenge. The 2016 presidential election saw a narrowing gap, according to the Election Assistance Commission. Following the 2020 election, it seems that…
Many states offer early voting options, including both absentee balloting and in-person voting. While Alabama and Mississippi offer absentee voting options, they still stand out as anomalies in the country’s electoral landscape. While Kentucky and Missouri offer limited early voting options, the influx of early ballots in numerous states, each with its unique voting rules and timeframes, can lead to a rapid evolution of early voting practices. So, we will learn primarily from this source alone.
As we’re still within the early voting window, one thing that early voting data confirms with certainty is who’s actually casting their ballots early.
“Among those who have already voted, a significant majority are strong supporters,” said the director of the University of Florida Election Lab, speaking with Vox. “Once people have decided who they’re voting for, that’s when they typically cast their ballots.”
Frequently, McDonald’s is associated with a significant demographic known as the “tremendous voters,” who tend to identify as Democrats. Usually registered with a specific celebration and catering to older voters. Traditionally, African Americans have shown a propensity to cast their ballots early, a trend that appears to be continuing thus far, according to McDonald’s observations. The notable difference is that a higher percentage of young women who cast their first votes tend to identify as Republicans.
While there may be a larger turnout of Republicans voting early in this year’s election, it is unclear whether this trend will ultimately impact the outcome of the race.
According to John Fortier, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, he is extremely careful when interpreting early voting trends. Changes to early voting developments have unfolded, particularly with various forms of early voting emerging following the unprecedented circumstances of the 2020 election. “The underlying trend evident across the 1990s, 2000s, and even the 2016 presidential election is the steady increase in voter participation, with each successive election seeing a greater proportion of individuals casting ballots by mail or opting for early voting in-person.”
Turnout developments typically emerge during early voting periods, according to Fortier, who expects these trends to persist in the current election cycle. During the initial stages of early voting, typically within the first three to four days, a significant surge in voter turnout is often observed, especially if the voting period is prolonged? As the campaign progresses, a noticeable decline in voter turnout is observed. However, a remarkable surge occurs in the last five to six days, marking a significant acceleration towards Election Day.
Despite the significant impact of the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump’s efforts to encourage his supporters to cast early ballots, predicting early voting trends for the 2024 election is complicated by the evolving landscape.
In the Western United States, where mail-in ballots are often the default option in places like Colorado, Oregon, and Washington, there’s another challenge that arises; mail-in ballot data tends to lag behind in-person early voting statistics. According to McDonald, Democrats tend to be much more likely to cast their ballots via mail-in voting.
Moreover, logistical factors, including the dates when mail-in ballots are dispatched, can significantly impact data accuracy, as has been seen in Clark County, Nevada, where discrepancies have arisen from variations in dispatch schedules. Despite initial concerns about low early vote turnout, officials discovered that ballots were sent out later than usual, allowing them to be returned and counted within the extended early voting period.
While we’re observing a significant number of Republicans casting their votes in person ahead of time, it’s widely acknowledged that there will be numerous mail-in ballots, particularly in Western states such as Washington and Oregon, where in-person voting options are severely limited. Given the current state of mail-in voting and election security, it’s unsurprising that Democrats are choosing this method, with more absentee ballots expected to be counted in the coming weeks. This subtle shift in the system causes persistent imbalances to emerge.
As election day approaches, Fortier predicts that voter turnout will peak on November 3, with a potential shift towards earlier voting periods. While some specialists might accurately forecast which states will lean towards a particular candidate based on early voting numbers as soon as this weekend, it’s likely an exception rather than the norm.
