By Matt Sloane, Co-Founder and Chief Technology Officer
As the year draws to a close, it’s essential to reflect on the developments within the drone industry and forecast what’s ahead for 2025.
As a fleeting glimpse of memory’s haze?
This was a monumental year for the drone industry – the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 was enacted, paving the way for Part 108 regulations, amidst a contentious debate over whether Chinese-made drones could be blacklisted. The year also saw several mergers and acquisitions, with new milestones added to the “DFR” (2.0, 3.0, and so on), alongside some truly remarkable moments.
What’s in store for the upcoming year? The history behind this location?
First, Half 108.
Because midnight strikes on New Year’s Day, the Biden Administration may have only 19.5 days remaining to initiate a Proposed Rulemaking for Half 108 – a deadline that was originally set for September but remains pending within the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) at the White House.
The fate of this proposed rule-making’s printing schedule remains uncertain, pending a possible earlier release before President Biden’s departure from office; yet, as recently publicly stated, it is imperative that it be published beforehand to ensure continuity amidst the anticipated administrative transition.
As a direct result of the Trump Administration’s stance, the implementation of these rules is unlikely to progress as intended, with potentially significant setbacks in store. A change in administration would likely introduce further delays across all regulatory initiatives, not just this one; any delay whatsoever could prove detrimental to the drone industry’s growth and development.
Although the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) expedited the rulemaking process prior to the twentieth date, the Trump Administration, along with the general public, will still have numerous opportunities to comment before the proposed rule becomes a regulation.
Subsequent, the “China concern.”
The Chinese arm of the drone industry exhaled collectively in relief on two separate occasions last year – once when Representative President-elect Donald Trump nominated Elise Stefanik, architect of the Countering CCP Drones Act, to serve as United States Ambassador to the United Nations; should she accept, her congressional seat would likely remain vacant until a special election is held to fill the vacancy, thereby precluding her potential advocacy for anti-Chinese drone regulations.
When the NDAA arrived at its second sigh of aid, each home received incomplete versions without the full model of the Countering CCP Drones Act incorporated. As a substitute, the bill mandates a national authority to take decisive action within 12 months to determine whether DJI and Autel pose a credible threat to U.S. national security. If they decline to participate or neither party agrees, the issue will be resolved.
If either entity fails to demonstrate no threat within a year or cannot decide within a year, they will automatically be listed on the FCC’s Covered List, effectively precluding them from obtaining new FCC licenses for their drones – essentially “banning” new models?
As the year draws to a close, speculation mounts about what 2025 might bring, while some officials in Washington prematurely celebrate, interpreting this modest reprieve as little more than a stay of execution.
As I assess the impending administration’s stance on China, I’m convinced it will be even more hostile than its predecessor, thus I’m wagering that “nothing gets done in time, the year timer ticks down, and we’re left with a ban anyway.” Only time will prove my hypothesis correct.
Main Gamers
Mergers and acquisitions will proceed to be fierce in 2025 throughout the {industry}, following some mega-M&A in 2024: Flock Security’s acquisition of Aerodome, Aerovironment’s acquisition of Blue Halo; and naturally Echelon AI’s acquisition of . While this final one may hold profound significance in your personal reflections than within the shared mindset of the drone sector, stay engaged for future compelling developments!
A pivotal moment unfolded at year’s end 2024 as the Military’s Quick Reaction Capabilities Tranche 2 competition yielded a surprise decision, opting for Teal over the incumbent, Skydio.
The implications of Skydio’s acquisition by Autel are unclear, but it’s crystal clear what this means for Teal and Pink Cat Holdings: a tiny disruptor has just become a behemoth that will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the drone industry for years to come.
A seamless integration of diverse technologies will unfold, as hardware manufacturers seek out software partners, box-based drone developers, and complementary accessory providers, among many others.
As global business leaders seek to diversify their supply chains, vertical titans are now on the lookout for strategic acquisitions that can help consolidate their offerings and reduce dependence on China, thereby increasing opportunities for US-based and allied companies.
I’m keeping an eye on a particular company – Uncommon Machines, to be precise – that has recently made headlines by bringing on board none other than Donald Trump Jr. to their board. Led by seasoned executive Allan Evans, formerly Chief Operating Officer at RedCat, this company aims to establish itself as a trusted partner, helping burgeoning drone firms build robust, NDAA-compliant supply chains that meet their unique needs.
Synthetic intelligence is poised to become a pivotal area of discussion in the industry next year, with significant emphasis on autonomy, data analysis, and laying groundwork for a beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) enabled future. While many companies will claim to incorporate “AI” into their products in the near future, most of these claims will amount to enhanced automation rather than truly artificial intelligence. A few genuine AI innovations, however, can be expected to emerge on the market.
Here’s a revised version: As various elements converge – advanced hardware, sophisticated software, evolving BVLOS regulations, AI-driven autonomy, and industry consolidation – the stage will be set to deliver on the full potential of drones; in retrospect, we may well regard 2025 as a pivotal turning point.
While we wait, we’ll continue feeding data to our system, which includes numerical updates for DFR – stay informed as DFR 4.0 is on the horizon soon; and, meanwhile, we’ll try to uncover the truth behind those enigmatic drones spotted in New Jersey, fueling speculation about extraterrestrial life.
Miriam McNabb serves as Editor-in-Chief at DRONELIFE and CEO of JobForDrones, a leading marketplace for expert drone companies, closely monitoring the evolution of the drone industry and the regulatory landscape surrounding it. As a renowned expert in the field of industrial drones, Miriam has authored more than 3,000 influential articles focused on this specialized domain, solidifying her reputation as a sought-after speaker and respected authority globally within the industry. With a degree from the University of Chicago, Miriam boasts over two decades of experience in high-tech sales and marketing for cutting-edge technologies.
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