For nearly two decades, astronomers have been monitoring a celestial body known as Apophis, which is predicted to make a rare and close approach to our planet on April 13, 2029. As most officers in global real estate markets lost interest, updated calculations effectively ruled out the prospect that Apophis would pose an immediate threat to Earth’s safety.
Apophis, once again at the forefront of scientific inquiry, its ominous reputation transformed into an opportunity for discovery rather than a harbinger of doom. Given the constraints of designing, constructing, and launching a spacecraft to reach Apophis within a timeframe of less than five years? There are existing spacecraft designs and even current missions that governments could potentially repurpose for a mission to Apophis, a rocky asteroid roughly the size of three soccer fields.
Scientists discovered Apophis in 2004, initially determining that its orbit posed a remote risk of impacting Earth either in 2029 or 2036. Scientists utilizing extra detailed radar observations of asteroid Apophis in 2021 conclusively ruled out any potential danger to Earth for a period of at least 100 years.
“The three most critical concerns regarding Apophis are: firstly, it must miss the Earth.” It should miss the Earth. According to Richard Binzel, a renowned professor of planetary science at MIT, “it would be a catastrophic mistake to overlook the Earth in our quest for extraterrestrial life.” Dr. Binzel has co-chaired multiple conferences since 2020, leveraging her expertise to rally support for pioneering initiatives that optimize the use of the Apophis asteroid’s potential in 2029.
“Asteroids of this magnitude are incredibly rare, occurring only once every 1,000 years or even less frequently,” Binzel told Ars. “That’s an experiment in action, courtesy of nature, as a massive asteroid approaches the Earth, where its gravitational forces and tidal forces will likely interact, potentially perturbing the asteroid’s trajectory.” The asteroid’s enigmatic remark reveals its inner workings.
Binzel contends that capturing Apophis’ movement prior to and following its closest approach in 2029 is crucial, with the asteroid expected to pass within 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometres) of Earth’s surface, a distance closer than that of geostationary satellites?
According to Dr. Binzel, conducting this experiment without sending a spacecraft would be virtually impossible, as it’s the only way to accurately measure the hazards posed by asteroids in their collective state. As a rare and unique natural phenomenon, this event is essentially an experiment occurring on a geological scale, allowing us to witness and learn from its majesty. How can we develop effective strategies for monitoring progress?
This week, NASA is planning a mission called RAMSES, potentially launching in April 2028, a year ahead of the Apophis flyby, to meet up with the asteroid in early 2029. If ESA member states grant full approval for future growth over the next 12 months, the RAMSES spacecraft is poised to accompany Apophis throughout its flyby of Earth, gathering comprehensive imagery and diverse scientific data before, during, and after closest approach.
Will the construction and launch of RAMSES within four years effectively accommodate potential future circumstances? If astronomers detect an asteroid hurtling towards Earth on a collision course, swift action becomes imperative. Given sufficient time, house businesses might launch a reconnaissance mission to gather information about the asteroid’s trajectory, composition, and potential impact zone. If necessary, they could then mount a mission to deflect or redirect the asteroid, potentially employing a method similar to that used in planetary defense scenarios.
“According to Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Protection Office, RAMSES is poised to demonstrate humanity’s capacity to conduct a reconnaissance mission that can rendezvous with an incoming asteroid in mere years.” “The asteroid deflection mission serves as the cornerstone of humanity’s response to a potentially catastrophic asteroid.” A preliminary reconnaissance mission can be dispatched initially to gather intelligence on the approaching asteroid’s trajectory and composition. The predicted consequences can inform the most effective strategy for deflecting the asteroid or eliminate non-threatening impacts before investing in a costly mitigation mission.
Shaking off the cobwebs
To facilitate a 2028 launch for RAMSES, ESA plans to leverage the existing design of its roughly half-ton precursor, set to lift off in October as part of the binary asteroid system surveying mission impacted by the DART experiment’s effects in 2022. According to ESA officials, copying the design of Hera is expected to accelerate the timeline required to put RAMSES on the launchpad.
Paolo Martino, leader of ESA’s Ramses development, emphasized that Hera successfully showcased ESA and European businesses’ ability to meet stringent deadlines.
The European Space Agency’s (ESA) House Security Board has recently greenlit preparatory work for the RAMSES mission, allocating existing financial resources within the organization. OHB, the German spacecraft manufacturer building Hera, will also lead the economic team working on RAMSES. According to Martino’s email to Ars, the price tag for RAMSES is expected to be “significantly lower” than the estimated €300 million ($380 million) for the Hera mission.
“Astronomers may still learn much about asteroids, but until now, we’ve had to venture deep into the Solar System to study them firsthand by sending spacecraft to their surface.”
“For the first time ever, nature is bringing the experiment to us and conducting it itself,” Michel said in a press release. As Apophis succumbs to robust tidal forces, massive landslides and disruptions will ensue, revealing previously hidden geological secrets beneath the surface.
Provided the project receives final approval within the next 12 months, RAMSES is poised to play a crucial role in studying Apophis. NASA is redirecting the spacecraft, which has completed its service on the OSIRIS-REx asteroid pattern return mission and is now en route to rendezvous with Apophis in 2029; however, it won’t reach its new destination until just a few weeks after its close flyby of Earth. Orbital mechanics’ complexities prevent an earlier rendezvous with Apophis from taking place.
According to Dr. Binzel, observations from OSIRIS-APEx, a larger and more complex spacecraft compared to RAMSES, will provide a comprehensive insight into the nature of asteroid Apophis following its anticipated Earth encounter. Before the Earth encounter with Apophis, we could only analyze a single facet of the image, whereas prior to that, we were able to establish the asteroid’s orbit.
Researchers are strongly advising NASA to reconsider deploying two previously retired scientific probes to intercept Apophis, potentially altering their flight path to coincide with the asteroid’s anticipated close approach in April 2029. The company cancelled these missions 12 months later, following the demise of their joint endeavour with NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer due to launch delays? The Janus probes’ potential launch has been rumored to coincide with the Psyche mission, but delays to the latter mission forced a postponement of roughly 12 months.
Despite the unforeseen delay, the modified launch trajectory forces a recalibration, rendering Janus incapable of visiting the two binary asteroids originally intended for probe exploration within the asteroid belt. NASA ultimately consigned the dual Janus spacecraft, measuring approximately suitcase-sized, to long-term storage after investing nearly $50 million in the mission.
At a recent workshop on Apophis missions held in April, experts gathered to hear presentations on more than 20 concepts for spacecraft and instrumentation measurements aimed at the asteroid.
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’s space company, Blue Origin, has proposed leveraging its Blue Moon lunar lander as a multi-platform hub for various devices and landers to deploy on the surface of Apophis, contingent upon funding and timelines being secured by research institutions to develop their payloads. The proposal from Exploration Laboratories outlines a potential partnership with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory for a collaborative small spacecraft mission to target asteroid Apophis.
As the workshop drew to a close, I took on the task of distilling the collective sentiment into a clear consensus, knowing that without such agreement, our top priorities would be at risk of falling apart. “The prevailing recommendation for ESA is to move forward with RAMSES.”
Researchers and scientists collaborated with NASA to explore the possibility of utilizing the Janus probe technology for a mission to Apophis, encouraging a potential breakthrough in asteroid exploration. “Binzel noted that Apophis, a mission, seeks a suitable spacecraft, while Janus, a spacecraft, awaits a meaningful mission to undertake.” As a statement of unequivocal conviction, the assertion that “Janus to Apophis is the very best precedent” stands out for its bold simplicity.
A matter of cash
NASA’s science budget, specifically funding for its planetary science vision, faces significant pressure. After investing $450 million in the mission earlier this week. With the mission exceeding its authentic growth rate by over 30 percent, an automated cancellation evaluation was triggered.
NASA’s Science Mission Directorate faces a significant reduction in funding for the current year, with a proposed allocation of approximately $500 million less than last year’s budget and $900 million below the White House’s requested fiscal 2024 budget. Due to tight finances, NASA officials have stated that they will not initiate new planetary science missions at this time, instead focusing on completing existing projects in the pipeline, such as the Mars Sample Return, Europa Clipper, and the Close-to-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor telescope, which aims to identify potentially hazardous asteroids.
NASA has asked the Janus team to explore the possibility of launching the spacecraft on the same rocket as the NEO Surveyor mission in 2027, according to Dan Scheeres, the principal investigator for Janus at the University of Colorado. By launching in 2027, Janus could potentially capture the first up-close images of Apophis before RAMSES and OSIRIS-APEX arrive?
“NASA has been discussing potentialities with us, and we’re currently exploring ways to help them better understand the likelihoods,” Scheeres noted during last week’s Small Bodies Advisory Group meeting, where representatives from the asteroid research community gathered to share insights.
“These spacecraft are designed to perform future scientific flyby missions to near-Earth asteroids,” Scheeres explained. Every spacecraft equipped with a high-quality camera system features both a Malin seen imager and a thermal infrared imager. Every spacecraft possesses the capability to meticulously map out and visually capture an asteroid system through a swift and precise flyby.
Daniella DellaGiustina, lead scientist on the OSIRIS-APEX mission at the University of Arizona, noted that a potential flyby by NASA’s Janus spacecraft could yield the most significant scientific returns among current market alternatives.
According to Binzel, the leader of the Apophis mission’s cost team, having a spacecraft accompany the asteroid as it passes near Earth could possess not only practical significance but also symbolic value. When Apophis is at its closest point to Earth, it will be visible in the night skies over Europe and Africa.
“When 2 billion people watch, a collective question will arise: ‘What are our household brands doing?’ The response had better be: ‘We’re already there.'” While the discovery of an exoplanet is significant, we must acknowledge that it may not be entirely fulfilling,’ said Binzel.
“Given the global nature of our neighborhood, it’s crucial we demonstrate our presence on April 13, 2029, by showcasing our commitment to observing and learning from these celestial bodies. We must gather as much information and understanding as possible, as this knowledge may prove vital at some point in the future.” Binzel emphasized. “Occasionally, precise details on hazardous asteroids become crucial data that underpins humanity’s future trajectory.”
