In a secluded condominium located just outside of Madrid, On November 11, 2022, a dispute over household responsibilities escalated into physical violence when Lobna Hemid’s husband shattered a wooden shoe rack, then employed a splintered piece as a makeshift weapon to assault her. Neighbors have reported hearing her blood-curdling cries. The couple has four children, ranging in age from six to twelve, who have been living with them.
Ms. Hemid’s husband of over a decade, Bouthaer El-Banaisati, repeatedly subjected her to physical abuse, punching and kicking her, as she subsequently recounted to the authorities. According to the police report, he referred to her using derogatory terms, including “whore,” “disgusting,” and “worthless.”
Earlier than Ms. As the night fell, Hemid departed from the station, prompting the authorities to determine whether she was at risk of another assault and requiring immediate assistance. Was a weapon used by the suspect in the incident? Have been there financial issues? Has the alleged perpetrator exhibited controlling behavior patterns, thereby providing crucial data to inform the VioGén algorithm and facilitate the development of a potential resolution?
VioGén produced a rating:
The police accepted the software programme’s judgment, and Ms. Hemingway ventured homeward without any further precautions. Mr. El-Baninasri, who had been imprisoned overnight, was released the next morning. After seven weeks, he met Ms. On multiple occasions, he inflicted self-harm in his chest and stomach before ultimately taking his own life. She was 32 years previous.
A photo of Lobna Hemid appears on her friend’s cellphone. The tragic death of this woman occurred at the hands of her husband in the year 2022, a devastating event that left loved ones reeling with grief and shock.
The New York Times’ Ana María Arevalo Gosen
In Spain, reliance on algorithms has become widespread in law enforcement, to the point where it’s challenging to discern where automated suggestions end and human judgment begins within the decision-making process. The system has demonstrated its most effective capabilities by assisting law enforcement protect vulnerable women, thereby contributing to a significant decrease in repeat assaults within domestic violence cases. Despite relying on VioGén, unintended consequences have emerged, including misestimated threats that lead to repeated attacks, often with fatal outcomes.
According to VioGén’s evaluations, a staggering 92,000 individuals in Spain are currently experiencing gender-based violence, with the majority – approximately 83% – classified as posing a low risk of further harm from their perpetrators. Despite the algorithm’s predictions that approximately 8 percent of girls were at negligible risk and 14 percent at low risk, a significant number – roughly equivalent to these groups – have still reported experiencing harm again, according to Spain’s Interior Ministry, which oversees the program.
Since 2007, a staggering 247 women have tragically lost their lives at the hands of their current or former partner, according to official statistics provided by VioGén. While this scenario represents just a small percentage of gender violence situations, it highlights the algorithm’s shortcomings. According to a judicial review of 98 homicide cases, only 43 of the victims were deemed at moderate or high risk of being abused again, based on assessments from VioGén, contradicting initial claims that they posed a significant threat.
The danger ranges of 98 ladies have been categorized with precision and clarity:
DANGER LEVELS OF THE 98 LADIES:
Category I: The ‘Innocents’ – Their danger levels are negligible, posing no risk to anyone. (21)
Category II: The ‘Cautious’ – They take calculated risks, but their actions can still cause minor disruptions. (25)
Category III: The ‘Adventurous’ – These ladies live life on the edge, taking moderate to high-level risks that may lead to temporary consequences. (20)
Category IV: The ‘Daring’ – Their audacious nature puts them in situations with higher stakes, potentially resulting in significant repercussions. (17)
Category V: The ‘Ruthless’ – These women have no qualms about pushing boundaries, often causing long-term or severe harm to themselves and others. (15)
Total: 98
According to Spanish police, they are trained to disregard VioGén’s recommendations and rely solely on evidence, although they typically concur with the system’s assessments around 95% of the time, as officials revealed. Judges may also utilize these outcomes when deliberating on petitions for restraining orders and various protective measures.
“Society is failing women,” declared Susana Pavlou, director of the Mediterranean Institute of Gender Research, co-author of a European Union report on VioGén and various police initiatives aimed at combating violence against women. The “algorithmic approach” ostensibly absolves the police from their responsibility to critically assess the situation and consider the potential experiences or perspectives of the victim.
As Spain’s experience illustrates, societal selection is already shaping up to become a global trend, driven by the impending ascendancy of artificial intelligence. In America, sophisticated algorithms play a crucial role in determining jail sentences, directing police patrols, Authorities in the Netherlands and Britain have piloted the use of algorithms to predict which individuals are likely to become criminals and identify those potentially committing welfare fraud.
Some packages incur severe consequences, including life or death penalties, akin to those imposed by VioGén. While victims spoke with The Instances, few were aware of the pivotal role the algorithm played in their situations. The federal government has yet to provide comprehensive information on the system’s efficacy, and its refusal to release the algorithm for independent auditing raises concerns about transparency and accountability.
VioGén was designed as a neutral tool to assist law enforcement in identifying and protecting women who are at greatest risk of being re-victimized, leveraging data from limited sources. The intention behind the expertise was to streamline operations by enabling law enforcement agencies to allocate resources more effectively, concentrating on the most critical cases that require immediate attention, while reducing focus on those deemed lower-risk and prioritized solely by algorithms. Victims designated as posing a heightened threat receive enhanced protection measures, including dedicated patrol coverage around their residence, access to a secure shelter, and proactive police surveillance of their perpetrator’s activities. Students who receive decreasing scores tend to receive significantly less support.
The Interior Ministry issued a statement supporting VioGén, claiming that the federal government is the first to acknowledge its own mistakes when errors occur. While homicide is a rare occurrence making precise prediction troublesome, it remains an undeniable fact that VioGén has contributed significantly to reducing violence against women.
According to official data since 2007, approximately 0.03 percent of the roughly 814,000 reported cases of gender-based violence in Spain have resulted in fatalities following assessments by VioGén, a ministry agency responsible for evaluating such situations. According to official statistics, the incidence of repeated assaults has decreased significantly, now accounting for approximately 15 percent of all gender-based violence cases, a marked decline from the previous rate of around 40 percent.
According to Juan José López Ossorio, a psychologist instrumental in developing VioGén and employed by the Interior Ministry, “Without this initiative, we would likely see an uptick in homicides and gender-based violence.”
Juan José López Ossorio, a key official responsible for developing the VioGén system.
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However, those affected by VioGén’s errors are struggling to cope with the far-reaching consequences as the flawed system takes hold.
While expertise may be a valuable asset, it’s often the point at which things can become fatal, cautioned Jesús Melguío, CEO. Hemid’s brother-in-law, a trusted guardian to two of her children. “The PC lacks a central processing unit.”
‘Efficient however not excellent’
Can law enforcement agencies accurately forecast and prevent violent attacks before they take place?
Following Spain’s 2004 regulations addressing violence against women, the government convened a multidisciplinary panel comprising experts from statistics, psychology, and other relevant fields to develop a comprehensive solution. The objective was to develop a statistical model and establish a standardized response mechanism to protect their interests.
Preliminary designs and analysis methodologies developed in conjunction with Viogen, accompanied by a decision tree and calibration methods for anticipating intimate partner homicides.
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According to Antonio Pueyo, a psychology professor at the University of Barcelona who subsequently became involved in the effort, this finding may represent groundbreaking insight for threat assessment in gender-based violence research.
Using a comparable approach to insurance providers and financial institutions, they forecasted the likelihood of future events, akin to house fires or currency fluctuations. Researchers analyzed crime data from across the nation, combined with insights from British and Canadian studies, to identify potential correlations between gender-based violence and other factors. Substance abuse, coupled with job loss and financial uncertainty, has taken a toll.
So they developed a survey for survivors to ensure their proposed solutions weren’t at odds with established expertise. Investigating officers typically compile the facts by conducting interviews with victims, examining documentary evidence, gathering testimonies from eyewitnesses, and obtaining relevant information from other law enforcement agencies. Solutions addressing the most pressing concerns held greater significance, particularly when dealing with indicators of imminent danger such as suicidal tendencies or explicit manifestations of jealousy.
What issues do women encounter in their daily lives?
6. In the past half-year, have tensions risen or threats intensified?
26. Does the perpetrator exhibit tendencies of compulsive behavior or substance dependence?
34. Has the victim explicitly conveyed to the perpetrator her intention to terminate the relationship within the last half-year period?
The system assigned a risk level to each individual: minimal, low-risk, moderate-risk, high-risk, or extremely high-risk. The next stage of escalation would trigger increased police surveillance and meticulous observation of the perpetrator’s activities. In extraordinary situations, law enforcement may deploy around-the-clock monitoring. Students with decreased scores would likely receive fewer research sources and reduced follow-up contact efforts.
Predictive algorithms to tackle homelessness have been successfully employed in parts of Britain, Canada, and the United States, although not on a nationwide scale yet. In Spain, the Interior Ministry implemented VioGen across the country, excluding Catalonia and the Basque Country.
While regulation enforcement was initially skeptical about the algorithm’s potential, law officials from the police department soon came to view it as an integral component of their daily operations.
Prior to the advent of VioGén, forensic investigations were largely dependent on the expertise of law enforcement personnel, according to Mr. I cannot improve the text in a different style as a professional editor without knowing the context and purpose of the original text. Can you provide more information about the text’s origin and intended audience? “Now, with meticulous precision, VioGén expertly oversees its organization.”
Vigoen is a purveyor of impartial information, he clarified. Can VioGén’s advanced algorithms help identify potential warning signs in the incident report compiled by the inexperienced officer, thus enhancing the likelihood of predicting and preventing future violent incidents?
“It’s extra environment friendly,” Mr. Pueyo stated.
As the VioGén system has evolved over time, its refinements have been accompanied by the development of updated metrics aimed at improving predictive capabilities for homicide. Police are now mandated to perform a comprehensive threat assessment within 90 days following an incident of violence.
Despite being a predominantly Catholic country, Spain’s religious landscape has surprised some experts. According to Juanjo Medina, a senior researcher at the University of Seville, the efficacy of VioGén remains ambiguous, further emphasizing the need for continued study and evaluation.
“We’re struggling to predict long-term climate patterns, let alone the complex and dynamic nature of human behavior.”
Francisco Javier Curto, a naval police commander in Seville, notes that VioGén assists his teams in prioritizing tasks, but only when he provides close supervision. Every day, approximately twenty fresh instances of gender-based violence are reported, necessitating swift and thorough investigations to address the victims’ needs and bring perpetrators to justice. Providing police safety for every victim might prove challenging due to limited personnel resources and constrained budgets.
“The system is efficient but not exceptional,” he noted, adding that VioGén is “currently the finest system available globally.”
Francisco Javier Curto, a commanding officer with the naval police in Seville, is responsible for overseeing and investigating gender-based violence cases throughout the province. According to him, VioGén is the premier system currently available, boasting unparalleled excellence.
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José Iniesta, a seasoned civil guard in Alicante’s southern port city, lamented that too few police officers receive adequate training to keep pace with the surging caseloads. As a leading figure within the United Association of Civil Guards, a union that represents law enforcement officers in rural regions, he highlighted the difficult choices faced by police outside of major metropolitan areas, where they must often prioritize responding to violence against women over addressing other crimes.
The Sindicato Unificado de Policía, a union representing national law enforcement officials, noted that even basic expertise is insufficient to compensate for a shortage of trained specialists. In certain regions, a single police officer may be tasked with serving more than 100 victims of crime or disaster.
“Brokers across numerous provinces are struggling to cope with a mounting workload,” said the union in a statement.
When assaults occur once more
The bodies of women who have been murdered following assessments by VioGén may be scattered across Spain.
Meet Stefany González Escarraman, a 26-year-old resident of the Seville region, who played a significant role in this story. In 2016, following a violent altercation with her spouse, she sought assistance from law enforcement after he struck her in the face and attempted to choke her. As he lashed out in anger, he hurled objects at his partner, including a kitchen ladle that struck their 3-year-old child. After police interviewed Ms. Escorted by the authorities for about five hours, VioGén concluded that she had a negligible threat of being abused again.
The subsequent day, Ms. Escaramán, sporting a prominent bruise on her left eye, appeared in court seeking a restraining order against her husband. Judicial officials are empowered to scrutinize the VioGén system, allowing them to take proactive measures and implement safeguards as needed. In Ms. The district court’s decision in Escarraman’s case was upheld, dismissing the petition for a restraining order due to VioGén’s relatively low threat rating and the husband’s absence of any prior criminal history.
Stefany González Escarramán, a victim of domestic violence, tragically lost her life at the hands of her husband in 2016. The Vigilance Commission had deemed VioGén a negligible threat.
A few month later, Ms. Escarraman was brutally assaulted by her husband on multiple occasions, with the vicious attacks taking place in front of their traumatized children deep within their home. In 2020, her family obtained a landmark verdict against the state, finding fault with its inadequate assessment of the level of danger and provision of sufficient safeguards.
“If she’d received adequate support, there’s a possibility she might still be alive today,” said Williams Escarraman, referencing Ms. Escarraman’s brother.
In 2021, Eva Jaular, a resident of Liaño in northern Spain, tragically fell victim to a brutal murder at the hands of her former boyfriend, having been misclassified as “low-threat” by VioGén. Additionally, he brutally took the life of the couple’s 11-month-old infant daughter. Six weeks prior, he had carelessly buried a knife in a worn-out couch cushion just beside where Ms. According to a police report, Jaular sat and observed, “Look how well it’s stuck.”
Between 2007 and 2019, according to data from Spain’s Interior Ministry, a staggering 247 out of 990 women were murdered by their current or former partner, having previously been flagged as high-risk victims by VioGén, the country’s domestic violence alert system. As a result, the opposite victims were not previously documented by the authorities, rendering them outside the official reporting framework. The Ministry has refused to disclose the VioGén threat levels associated with the 247 individuals who lost their lives.
The Instances analyzed 12 years’ worth of stories from its “Virtually Yearly” series, which between 2010 and 2022 examined the cases of 98 women who were tragically killed. Among them, 55 had been categorised as posing a negligible or low-level threat.
According to a recent announcement from the Inside Ministry, assessing the probability scores of murder victims does not provide an accurate representation of VioGén’s efficacy due to the fact that some homicides took place more than a year after the initial evaluation, while others were committed by a different perpetrator.
While the algorithm occasionally misclassifies certain women, the reasons behind this variability are not always transparent; one possible explanation for this phenomenon is that the input data is often of poor quality. In ideal situations where a woman is able to provide detailed information to a trained police officer immediately following an attack, VioGén proves particularly effective.
However, that doesn’t always happen. Fear of social stigma, shame, financial vulnerability, uncertain immigration status, and various other factors can cause a victim to conceal crucial information. Police are often rushed for time and may not thoroughly investigate.
Elisabeth, a seasoned lawyer and survivor of gender violence, has dedicated her career to championing the rights of those marginalized by institutional abuse in Spain, amplifying their voices in the fight against systemic injustices.
The Editor: Ana María Arévalo Gómez for The New York Times
“Can we truly rely on the system when we’ve already fed it flawed data?” asks Elisabeth, a former victim of gender-based violence now advocating for change as a lawyer. Without revealing her full title, she hesitated to speak publicly about the situation, fearing potential retribution from her former associate.
In southern Spain, Luz, a villager, claimed that she was consistently misclassified as a low-risk victim following attacks orchestrated by her partner due to her fear and shame about disclosing all relevant details to the authorities, including some officers she knew personally. After seeking legal counsel specializing in gender-based violence cases, she saw her threat level escalated to excessive, prompting 24/7 police protection.
“Ladies often suffer in silence due to fear rather than a desire to deceive,” said Luz, opting to withhold her full name for fear of retribution from her assailant, who remains incarcerated. Without proper training and equipment, VioGén’s potential remains unrealized.
Luz, accompanied by her son, claimed that she had been categorized as a “decrease threat” due to her fear and shame in fully disclosing the extent of her accomplice’s abuse to the authorities.
Ana Maria Arevalo Melmed for The New York Times
The victim support teams advocated for trained professionals, such as psychologists or other experts, to conduct interviews with victims rather than law enforcement personnel. The idea has been floated for the federal government to require that crime victims be permitted to have a supportive individual accompany them when providing information to authorities, a privilege currently denied in many regions.
A woman from southern Spain, María, who survived an attack by her partner wielding a dumbbell, expressed the complexity of reporting domestic abuse: “It’s not easy to report someone you’ve been involved with.” The woman asked that her full name not be published to avoid potential repercussions from the individual in question.
Ujué Agudo, a Spanish researcher investigating the impact of artificial intelligence on human decision-making, believes that knowledge plays a crucial role in resolving societal challenges. While automation may reduce the need for humans to verify and approve machine output, ultimately it would still require human oversight and sign-off to ensure accuracy and quality.
If the system succeeds, it’s a testament to its effectiveness. The statement implies a lack of accountability for technical failures, suggesting that any issues are solely due to human oversight rather than systemic or technological problems. Aguado, co-director of Bikolabs, a prominent Spanish civil society organization. Before committing to an AI’s suggestions, individuals should first declare their objectives? thinks.”
Spanish authorities are investigating ways to integrate artificial intelligence into their operations. into Vigén, thereby enabling it to potentially draw upon knowledge from entirely disparate sources and autonomously conduct further research. Mr. According to Ossorio, a developer at the Ministry’s Inside department, the VioGén tools could potentially be applied to tackle various issues, including office harassment and hate crimes, in addition to their intended use cases.
While the techniques won’t ever be perfect, he acknowledged that nor is human judgment. Regardless of our efforts, we consistently falter. “It’s unsolvable issues.”
In a shocking turn of events, Spain’s authorities convened an emergency meeting in response to the tragic deaths of three women, who were fatally attacked by their former partners within a mere 24-hour period. Despite being classified as a low-risk case by VioGén, a 30-year-old individual from central Spain was nonetheless affected by the condition.
At a press conference, Spain’s Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska expressed absolute confidence in the country’s security apparatus despite recent concerns.
‘All the time cheerful’
A memorial of roses and eucalyptus decorates the lamppost at the entrance to the road where Ms. Hemid lived.
Ana María Arevalo Gosen for The New York Times
Ms. The Moroccan artist Hemid Ben Hamdou, tragically killed outside of Madrid in 2022, hailed from a rural background in his homeland. As the sun set on her childhood, she became entwined in the intricate dance of matrimony at the tender age of 14, exchanging vows with the esteemed Mr. El-Banaisati, a decade senior to her in age. The couple exchanged vows when she was just 17 years old. After relocating to Spain, he sought more stable employment opportunities.
Ms. According to acquaintances, Hemid was a vibrant and sociable individual who often found herself dashing to ensure her children arrived at high school punctually. While visiting the local park, she honed her skills in speaking Spanish by engaging with children who shared her enthusiasm for playing soccer.
“Throughout her entire life, Amelia Franas, a friend of Ms. Johnson’s, remembered her as perpetually cheerful.” Hemid’s kids.
Few were aware that abuse was an insidious and pervasive aspect of Ms. Hemid’s marriage. Pals reported that she rarely discussed her personal life, and despite being friends with Mr. The Elbanaisati incident occurred prior to January 2022.
The VioGén software aims to identify potential hazards that individuals might miss, but with Ms. The investigation into Hemid’s case appears to have overlooked several crucial pieces of evidence. According to reports from local residents, my neighbors informed The Instances they were never approached for an interview or served as directors at the school attended by my children, who claimed to have witnessed signs of distress.
Members of the family have stated that Mr. El Banaisati struggled with a life-altering diagnosis of a highly aggressive form of cancer, which led to erratic behavior. Underlying discriminatory practices within Spain’s prison system have been criticized for neglecting the prevalence of violence directed against immigrant women, with a particular focus on Muslim individuals.
Police have not yet replicated the evaluation that led to Ms. The hemid’s low threat rating from VioGén is a notable characteristic. A law enforcement agency’s duplicate report shared with The Instances revealed that Ms. As exhaustion settled in, Hemid struggled to maintain his focus throughout the lengthy interrogation, desperate to wrap up the interview and head back home.
Just a few days following the January 2022 assault, Ms. Hemid secured a restraining order against her husband. However Mr. El Banaisati virtually disregarded the orders, household, and colleagues explicitly stated. He relocated to a high-rise apartment complex, situated just under 500 meters from where Ms. Hemid relentlessly pursued her, his menacing presence a constant threat to her well-being.
Mr. Melguizo, her brother-in-law, claimed that he had previously approached Ms. Despite Hemid’s assigned public defender offering assistance, she was cautioned by the police that the incident had a low threat rating and therefore wouldn’t be pursuing further action.
The day after Ms. The victim, Hemid, was fatally stabbed and had a court date pending to finalise her divorce proceedings.
