Within approximately 24 hours – a remarkably brief period of time – Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a formidable force. As powerful gusts surged on Monday afternoon, the storm made history as one of the most intense hurricanes to ever ravage the Atlantic region.
Forecasters are counting on Hurricane Milton, currently brewing in the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula, to make landfall in western Florida by late Wednesday. The storm is expected to gradually lose intensity due to interactions with wind shear and dry air, yet forecasters still anticipate Milton will bring “extremely dangerous” conditions when it reaches landfall according to the National Hurricane Center. As Hurricane Ian’s storm surge warning intensifies, Tampa Bay residents prepare for potentially catastrophic flooding, with dire consequences imminent if the Category 3 hurricane makes landfall directly on this densely populated region.
Milton, unlike most Atlantic hurricanes, defies comparison, according to Dragan Zanovic, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University. “It’s extremely rare for a hurricane to form in the western Gulf, track eastward, and make landfall on Florida’s West Coast,” he noted in his email. There are no recorded hurricanes that have reached a Category 3 or higher intensity and made landfall.
Uncommonly rapid was the storm’s intensification, utterly confounding forecasters as it surged to over 100 miles per hour in wind speed between Sunday morning and early Monday afternoon. According to Milton, a Nationwide Climate Service forecaster, he had experienced “among the most intense and rapid intensification of any storm this forecaster has ever witnessed!”
Why Milton intensified so rapidly
What’s driving this unusual heat in ocean water?
Check out the chart under. The Gulf of Mexico is exhibiting abnormally high ocean temperatures, nearing record-breaking levels. The graph illustrates a comparison between the current year (pink) and the average trend over the past decade (blue).
According to a climatologist at the University of Miami, whose research underlies this chart, warmth plays a crucial role in rapid intensification, aligning with established scientific understanding. As temperatures rise, the water absorbs more energy, leading to accelerated evaporation. The resulting moist air then rises rapidly, fueled by the convection currents generated by this process.
Researchers are uncertain about the exact catalyst behind the Gulf’s heating, but theories suggest a combination of factors, including regional climate change, which elevates the ocean’s baseline temperature, and lingering impacts from natural climate variability, as well as potentially a .
One other key to Milton’s explosive progress is a scarcity of wind shear in its path, in keeping with , director of the Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Research, a joint initiative of the College of Miami and the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Wind shear refers to significant changes in both wind velocity and direction within a specific area, particularly turbulent air masses that can potentially disrupt hurricane formation. As the storm approaches Florida, it’s likely to encounter increased shear, potentially diminishing its strength and increasing its vulnerability to weakening prior to making landfall.
Moreover, McNoldy noted that Milton’s width can be surprisingly narrow in comparison to its overall size. As of Monday, hurricane-force winds were prolonged, extending roughly around the storm’s center. Small hurricanes are often more susceptible to fluctuations in intensity due to their heightened sensitivity to atmospheric conditions.
Although forecasters predict Milton’s growth before it reaches Florida, its size will likely be modest when making landfall, considering the storm’s diameter. “That’s all-around excellent news,” he said. Smaller storms tend to produce significantly less storm surge, defined as a sudden and temporary rise in sea level. Compared to Hurricane Helene, a self-sustaining system, forecasters anticipate that Tropical Storm Milton will produce significantly less storm surge.
While it may not explicitly suggest that consultants like McNoldy, a Florida resident, are afraid, the text still conveys their fear in an implicit manner. As of Monday, Tropical Storm Milton appears to be barreling straight towards the densely populated west coast of Florida’s Gulf Coast, specifically targeting the Tampa Bay region. In this devastated area, numerous people were tragically killed by Hurricane Helene just recently.
As McNoldy spoke, his words dripped with a sense of foreboding: “This can be a very ominous forecast.” “This storm is expected to be unusually powerful.”
