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The team at Future Good gathered in December to share their forecasts for the year’s most significant events to unfold. Will Congressional legislation materialize that brings joy to President-elect Donald Trump’s heart? Will the novel coronavirus strain grow to become a full-blown pandemic, infecting millions worldwide and wreaking havoc on global health systems? Will the cease? Will participation in significant sporting events necessarily lead to greatness?

Making predictions about the future is an enjoyable activity that people frequently engage in. This isn’t just mere speculation. While every prediction carries an inherent uncertainty, This metric provides a means to gauge our confidence, which is unwarranted in certain situations, such as considering Grammy nominations, but is less problematic in other cases. Don’t let history repeat itself by making the same mistakes in every presidential cycle. While a probability of 75% or even 80% might suggest a strong likelihood, it by no means guarantees a specific outcome. While slightly likely, we forecast that four or five predictions would yield accurate results, with a likelihood of three or four of those proving true, correspondingly.

As we have done annually, we will track the performance of our predictions throughout 2025, providing a detailed report by the end of December. You will have the opportunity to review. In a notable achievement, our team has successfully partnered with Metaculus, a leading prediction platform, to bring about a fresh collaboration this year. You’ll have the opportunity to test your predictions against neighbourhood trends, competing in a prize pool while exploring detailed explanations linked from relevant Metaculus entries. As of December 31, we’ve integrated the collective predictions from the Metaculus community, featuring their aggregated forecasts for the various questions they’ve tackled. —

Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign was arguably the most protectionist of any candidate since William McKinley: he vowed to impose a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% levy on goods from everywhere else.

As his successes mount, he has grown increasingly bold, urging the abandonment of a long-standing free trade agreement negotiated by his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, in blatant disregard of the accord’s terms and commitments.

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The alarming reality is that Trump’s presidency has significant implications for global economic stability, as he possesses considerable discretionary powers. While that discretion isn’t unlimited, a 10% blanket tariff like the one Trump initially proposed would still have significant implications. To further support offsetting the cost of making permanent President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts before they expire at the end of next year. Will Congress pass a standalone tariff bill that embodies a more permanent framework, rather than just perpetuating Trump’s policies under future presidencies?

My guess isn’t any. In 2015, Republicans were champions of free markets and free commerce, and some members of Congress still recall this era. Early reporting enables the consideration of tariffs alongside other taxes as part of a comprehensive package. While Republicans can technically survive the loss of just three senators and two House members within their caucus, they still face a daunting challenge in passing legislation, particularly on issues that split their ranks, such as tariffs.

Two caveats, although. I predict a few retaliatory tariffs and possibly novel unilateral tariffs from Trump. The likelihood of him introducing new tariffs through presidential authority is nearly 100%. The sole reason my prediction doesn’t foresee a decline is the growing bipartisan interest in implementing a targeted carbon tariff – a type of carbon tax applied exclusively to imported goods. The proposal has garnered significant support from Republicans due to its nuanced approach, acknowledging the reality of global warming while also addressing concerns about foreign intervention. That’s a tariff, which I believe has the best chance of being incorporated into a tax package; although, I still bet against it. —

The peculiarity of American politics lies in its propensity to transform seemingly monumental issues, such as “Can Donald Trump fulfill his campaign promise to abolish the Department of Education?” – only to find that they pivot on obscure and technical matters like “Will the Senate parliamentarian deem a departmental reorganization incompatible with reconciliation process under Article III, Section 9 of the Congressional Budget Act?”

The Division of Education, responsible for overseeing higher-education institutions and allocating funds (circa $10 billion annually) to local schools through programs such as Title I (supporting low-income districts) and IDEA (providing services for disabled students), was established in 1980. Repealing the traditional invoice requiring 60 Senate votes to interrupt a filibuster appears a daunting task, as it would necessitate convincing at least eight additional Democratic Senators to support the effort, a prospect that seems unlikely.

So laws abolishing the division, previously authored by , must proceed through financial reconciliation to guarantee passage with a simple majority in the Senate.

While reconciliation processes have strict guidelines governing the content of laws passed through this mechanism, a key principle is that provisions related only “in passing” to overall spending or taxation levels are specifically excluded from consideration.

While Rounds’ invoice may have limitations, it is notable that it does not altogether eliminate the Department of Education’s specific competencies. It simply strikes them round. Funds allocated for pupil loans would be directed to the Treasury Department, while vocational programs would fall under the jurisdiction of the Department of Labor. This apparent discrepancy in expenditure is fundamentally extraneous to the actual level of spending, rendering it impossible to reconcile without further examination.

It’s possible that the Senate parliamentarian may not concur with your proposal, as their role involves upholding the rules and precedents of the Senate. Probably. However, alongside this shift, there’s an overwhelming focus on restructuring rather than the actual content of the division’s offerings, leading me to doubt whether Republicans will fiercely advocate for this initiative. Will prioritizing changes to the student loan office’s mailing address ultimately lead to successful outcomes in their conflicts with the parliamentarian? I doubt it. —

Since its signing into law on March 23, 2010, the Affordable Care Act has faced relentless opposition from the Republican Party, with a singular focus on repeal since day one. They even over it. In 2017, the dog finally seized the opportunity: with unified Republican control of Congress and the White House, there was a rare chance to undo the law.

Certain individuals are required by law to obtain medical insurance, but that has not yet come to pass. The rest of the invoice retained its core provisions: Medicaid expansions that made a significant impact, policies shielding individuals with pre-existing conditions, and a rule allowing young adults to stay on their parents’ health insurance. Additionally, subsidies continued to support people in purchasing medical coverage if their employer did not offer it.

Despite initial attempts at “skinny repeal,” a proposal that simply eliminated a few specific provisions, the debate had already reached an impasse due to inherent complexities, much less those arising from the far-reaching consequences of abolishing the Affordable Care Act entirely.

Will the rivalry reignite in 2025 and spark another epic battle between these two formidable opponents? I’m skeptical. I simply mean getting rid of the individual mandate, which is a crucial part of the law, and reforming other key aspects that aren’t working as intended. To qualify as repealed, an invoice must fail to appear in no fewer than three out of the subsequent five issues.

During the Biden administration, experts who previously advised or were set to advise him on financial matters suggested repealing the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) expansion protections and further cutting Medicaid. I expect them to submit these suggestions. Despite a much narrower House majority than they held in 2017, and an equally precarious Senate majority, it’s unclear whether Republicans can muster the support needed to implement the scope of cuts they failed to achieve eight years prior. —

Jerome Powell’s tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve is set to conclude at the end of a specific timeframe. Although he is not contractually obligated to remain on the Board of Governors until his term expires in 2028, Donald Trump has mentioned . Powell has indicated that he will resist any attempt to remove him from office before the end of his term, asserting that he will not comply with such an order.

It’s possible that 90 percent seems underwhelming due to the probability that a 71-year-old man will pass away within the next year, which is approximately 0.03; I find it easier to imagine Powell’s death occurring while still in office rather than submitting to forced retirement.

However, I must confess that I harbor a significant private bias right here. Jay Powell stands out as the most accomplished Chairman of the Federal Reserve in its history, and arguably one of the finest central bankers globally over recent times? He averted a global economic catastrophe brought on by COVID-19, spearheaded a remarkably swift recovery in employment and financial growth following the pandemic’s aftermath, thereby terminating an inflationary episode without triggering a recession. He’s an extraordinary individual who far surpasses what we could ever hope to deserve, and for the sake of my own fragile sanity, I desperately wish he’d remain near. —

Following his inauguration, people exhibit a remarkable propensity for instantaneously embracing the newly elected president, which is exemplified by a significant shift in public perception: the presidential approval rating improves dramatically, surging from a dismal -8.6 points underwater on Election Day to a relatively optimistic 1.9 points beneath average just nine days later, December 19. As soon as he becomes president, I’ll deem this prediction “true” if either his favorability or job approval ratings remain optimistic, thereby clarifying the distinction between these two metrics.

While presidential “honeymoons” don’t have a fixed duration, they generally last anywhere from 100 to 150 days. It appears surprisingly brief. As of 2022, a data analysis revealed that both Obama, Trump, and Biden experienced a significant decline in their approval ratings below 50 percent by the end of the first year, with Trump’s never exceeding 50% during his initial term.

The two exceptions on the chart are Bill Clinton, whose popularity experienced an unexpected decline following his 1993 restoration, which I do not actually observe, and George W. President Bush, whose first year in office was marked by the devastating events of September 11. The likelihood of another 9/11 attack appears distressingly remote, with the trend trending downwards towards diminished support for a president’s initial year amidst contemporary circumstances.

Additionally, Trump faces unprecedented disdain from a significant proportion of the population, and his pledge to impose substantial tariffs may prove highly unpopular when they inevitably increase the prices of everyday household essentials. As his presidential term comes to a close, I strongly believe that President Trump will struggle to leave a lasting legacy underwater. —

Despite potential reservations, the categorization remains subjective; nonetheless, following the esteemed prediction markets expert’s lead: should one publicly and unequivocally belittle their opponent on at least three separate occasions. Fortunately, we won’t have to rely on subtlety from Trump and Musk, as their vocal disapproval can be loud and frequent once someone displeases them. Therefore, it’s unlikely that determining their stance by the end of 2025 will prove challenging.

The list of former Trump associates who have publicly renounced their support for the ex-president has grown impressively long, but let’s take a moment to highlight just a few notable examples, such as John Bolton, Jeff Sessions, Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, and Rudy Giuliani.

It doesn’t seem likely that Musk’s presence would dramatically shift the trajectory of their company. As the champion of a newly emerging force, his role seems destined to set him at odds with Trump’s Cabinet officials, congressional Republicans, and potentially even his co-chair Vivek Ramaswamy. While Trump may engage in verbal sparring matches with Musk, his stance on spending has always been more practical than Musk’s tendency to slash costs, leaving room for potential conflicts to escalate.

What if Elon Musk were to advocate for significant cuts to Medicare and Social Security, which have become cornerstone programs for millions of Americans? What if Biden desires greater protectionism and Trump advocates for a more robust stance against China? What if Elon Musk makes a push for reconciliation with China, despite having an extremely strained relationship with its authorities – as Ramaswamy noted earlier?

I cannot predict the precise inciting episode that causes Trump and Musk to fall out. Despite my initial reservations, I genuinely grasp their dynamics, and it appears more likely than not that they tend to clash. —

According to estimates from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, released with a year’s delay, it is anticipated that over 40,000 people may be killed by automobiles in 2023. Given the significant decline of traffic fatalities in the US since the Sixties, it’s remarkable that as recently as 2007, over 40,000 people lost their lives due to America’s reliance on a car-centric transportation system – until the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the United States, it’s counterintuitive to assume that a decrease in drivers on the road would lead to fewer fatal car crashes; instead, statistics reveal that reduced traffic often yields higher speeds and subsequently, more deadly accidents. For decades, the United States has suffered from a staggering death toll on its roads, a statistic that is nothing short of embarrassing for one of the world’s wealthiest nations.

Numbers are gradually declining once more. According to preliminary data, a decline in traffic fatalities has been observed in the first six months of 2024, with a notable decrease of 3.2% compared to the same period in 2023. According to current trends, if the identical pattern from 2023 persists into the second half of 2024, it is estimated that total auto fatalities for 2024 will reach approximately 39,500. Automobile crashes are often unpredictable, with patterns differing significantly across various seasons? In California, where transportation is paramount, a figure like this – fewer than 40,000 fatalities per year – might not seem extraordinary at first glance; still, it’s an achievement worthy of recognition in a state whose very infrastructure revolves around the car. —

What a difference a year makes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced intense backlash in December 2023 as his government’s comprehensive failure to predict the deadly October 7 attacks by Hamas led to widespread criticism and severe damage to his political standing. According to polls, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is predicted to secure a mere 17 out of 120 parliamentary seats in Israel’s Knesset. Israel faced a crisis as its methods of battling Gaza came under scrutiny for their harmful consequences, while Israeli public opinion turned against the government’s inability to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas and protect its own citizens. As Netanyahu stood on the threshold of his historic presidency, he reflected on the momentous journey that had brought him to this point.

As of December 2024, according to recent polls, it appears that Netanyahu’s Likud party would emerge victorious if elections were held today, with a significant lead over other parties. Israel has arguably had its most successful opponent, and arguably its most existential threat. Under the Syrian authorities’ management, Israel had previously operated in this area. As President Joe Biden’s tenure draws to a close, his successor, President-elect Donald Trump, signals a shift in approach towards Gaza, indicating a willingness to grant Israel greater latitude in the region.

Since 1996, Netanyahu has held the office of Israeli Prime Minister for approximately 27 out of the past 32 years. Despite being seemingly trapped, he consistently finds a way to extricate himself from precarious situations. I envision significant advancements that will unfold in 2025. —

People grew increasingly frustrated with inflation in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, but we’ve had no respite.

In the United States, we often exhibit a sense of entitlement, bemoaning rates of 6% to 7% inflation as excessive. In Argentina, double-digit annual inflation rates have become a recurring phenomenon. As annual inflation soared past triple digits, its trajectory seemed to accelerate exponentially, a trend that continued unabated following the departure of left-wing Peronist President Alberto Fernández from office.

A chainsaw-wielding self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist who drew inspiration from libertarian economists Milton Friedman, Murray Rothbard, and Robert Lucas, unleashed a shock therapy upon assuming office this year, abolishing price controls and subsidies for essentials like gasoline and food, while simultaneously devaluing the peso by a significant margin. As depicted in the accompanying chart, initial costs skyrocketed substantially. Despite initial progress, they have been steadily declining. The worth surge had a salutary impact on the federal government’s debt burden, ultimately easing it.

The consequences have been severe, with inflation soaring and the economy plunging into recession for a significant portion of the year. As Argentina basks in the rare phenomenon of simultaneously declining inflation and a growing economy, a welcome respite for citizens.

It’s unlikely that the nation will achieve an annual inflation rate of just 3 percent by 2024. The unemployment rate was 1.66%, a decline of 27 points from the previous month. If the speed of decline continues at this pace, the nation will reach a 30% mark within five months. As the initial impact of Milei’s policies fades, I anticipate economic growth will stall due to mounting pressure for wage increases in a country finally experiencing resurgence. I’m not sure what you’re getting at? —

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, Despite initial predictions suggesting Ukraine would collapse shortly after Russia’s invasion, the country has remarkably persisted, its resilience defying expectations. Despite exceptions, such as these, it’s clear that the longer the conflict endures, the more Russia’s sheer scale and determination have overwhelmed Ukraine’s ability to resist, even with the added support of the US and its European partners.

President Biden has consistently demonstrated steadfast support for Ukraine, but his departure on January 20 will soon be followed by Donald Trump, who has openly stated his commitment to continuing assistance to the country. Despite ongoing hostilities, both Ukraine and Russia seem to be actively positioning themselves for maximum leverage ahead of expected peace negotiations, with each side striving to secure and protect territory. The potential outcome of such an agreement is inherently uncertain, and a temporary cessation of hostilities does not necessarily guarantee a lasting peace. The prospect of an extended pause in global hostilities by 2025 is hardly surprising? —

For the purposes of this prediction, acquiring nuclear weapons implies manufacturing sufficient fissile materials to power a functional nuclear weapon. Developing a functional nuclear weapon that can be miniaturized for use on a missile would likely extend beyond the 2025 timeframe.

Iran’s nuclear capabilities are already concerning, with estimates suggesting it could potentially enrich enough uranium to fuel five nuclear weapons. The primary focus of this inquiry revolves around global political dynamics. Iran had a horrible 2024. Can Israel’s initial barrage of missiles, aimed at witnessing each subsequent volley being largely neutralized by missile defense systems, ultimately prompt a counterattack from Israel targeting Iran? The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, Iran’s most influential proxy, suffered significant losses when Israel conducted a military operation that targeted and destroyed many of its strongholds in southern Lebanon. The election of Donald Trump as President brings a leader to the forefront who has had significant dealings with Iran.

While everyone collectively acknowledges the precarious situation the Iranian regime faces, it is crucially important to exercise caution before considering nuclear weapons as a viable solution to address its perceived insecurities. Simultaneously, newly inaugurated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seems to be courting the West, recognising that a fresh diplomatic approach could yield much-needed financial aid by offering concessions in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions.

While the Iranian regime’s top priority remains self-preservation, I hazard to suggest that the potential risks of pursuing a nuclear programme may outweigh its benefits, at least in the short term. The prospect of intensifying Iran’s nuclear programme may prompt Israeli or US military intervention, effectively halting the endeavour. Nevertheless, I remain unconvinced that Iran will join the nuclear club by 2025, albeit without a high degree of confidence in this assertion. —

First off, some math. While infectious disease pandemics may seem like a frequent occurrence, they remain exceedingly rare. Since 1918, significant influenza outbreaks have occurred: the Spanish flu in 1918, the Asian flu in 1957, the Hong Kong flu in 1968, the Russian flu in 1977, and the swine flu pandemic in 2009. Providing a simplistic estimate, approximately 5 percent of any specific year’s data is naively allocated.

As the COVID-19 pandemic has starkly illustrated? While the global threat posed by the H5N1 avian influenza virus remains a pressing concern, significant progress has been made in recent years to better understand and combat this deadly pathogen. When California detected 34 human cases of the virus on December 18, it became the first state to declare a state of emergency due to avian influenza. Preliminary findings indicate that even small mutations could potentially enhance the virus’s transmission dynamics, rendering it more likely to spread rapidly and widely among individuals, thereby increasing the risk of a pandemic taking hold. Currently, the possibility of H5N1 virus being able to transmit between individuals is extremely limited, and it would require specific conditions.

I’m skeptical that H5N1 will truly spread far and wide, which, in the context of this forecast, means the WHO officially designating it as a global pandemic, something that could potentially happen across various regions. Despite our exceptional performance in managing and maintaining the facility. Slightly, it’s private expertise.

I’ve been closely monitoring the H5N1 virus since its emergence. I’ve traveled to many exciting places. As a seasoned journalist, I’ve closely monitored this virus for nearly a quarter century, and honestly, I doubt H5N1 has it. I sense it, a notion that may persist. —

By “main lab,” I mean to refer specifically to one of the following established firms:

This list encompasses an array of organizations, ranging from those not prioritizing the cutting-edge edge of deep learning (such as Netflix) to companies whose core business is not in developing their own models but rather hosting or facilitating models created by others (like Scale or Hugging Face). You initially thought Nvidia was out of the running until it suddenly made a move, which has many potential implications for the rapidly evolving world of AI.

The notion of synthetic general intelligence (AGI) remains an ambiguous concept, with no consensus among AI researchers on its precise definition, let alone the characteristics or implications it may hold. Most definitions of artificial intelligence hinge on an analogy to humans: an AI is deemed intelligent if it can accomplish every task a human being can perform, with the ability to learn and complete novel tasks.

The notion harbours inherent flaws. Different people are capable of various pursuits; what one individual cannot accomplish, another may excel at.

Fortunately, we don’t need to understand exactly what AGI represents in order to grasp this prediction. Without necessarily achieving perfection, a substantial agency is required to affirm success. In a blog post on X last year, an OpenAI staff member ventured to say that their models had surpassed human capabilities – although, crucially, the company itself has not made such sweeping declarations.

Since expectations are so modest, shouldn’t we anticipate that even the most sluggish firms will meet their own mediocre targets without much fuss? Due to a combination of factors, including its relatively youthful nature and reputation sensitivity, the artificial intelligence (AI) space poses significant risks for agencies that make premature announcements about their AI capabilities. If an agency’s AGI claims are discredited by an untimely announcement, it may ultimately lead to a distinction between success stories like Apple and infamous failures like Atari.

It’s challenging for me, a non-nuclear physicist, to verify whether a nuclear fusion company’s claim of achieving commercial-scale power acquisition is genuine or not. I’m not equipped to operate a nuclear reactor either. While an advanced generative intelligence (AGI) is anticipated to encompass a diverse range of media formats, including textual content, video, audio, and user interfaces accessible to the general public, it would be immediately apparent whether an AI provider has genuinely achieved this milestone or not, due to its far-reaching implications. —

As unlikely as I am to make different car-related predictions, I wonder if a more effective approach to addressing local weather changes would be to proactively adopt sustainable practices that reduce emissions rather than relying on drastic measures like having fewer vehicles altogether? Since that’s America, we’re forced to navigate the frustratingly car-centric labyrinth of our own making. Despite some drawbacks, such as increased harm to pedestrians and cyclists due to their heavier weight, electric vehicles are undeniably beneficial to society in most respects, prompting a begrudging acceptance of the long-awaited EV transition.

By the end of 2024’s third quarter, Electric Vehicles (EVs) operating within the United States will have undergone a comprehensive evaluation by Kelley Blue Book. Despite concerns over slowing electric vehicle sales, I believe we’ll still achieve a 10% market share by year-end, given the industry’s previous growth momentum and declining interest rates. Despite Donald Trump’s pledge to impose comprehensive tariffs, I’m not overly concerned about its likelihood, as my colleague Dylan Matthews has already cautioned against such a scenario, so I won’t adjust my forecast significantly.

Despite this being a tantalizing prospect, the digital gold rush remains far from reaching its climax, whether one chooses to acknowledge it or not? Bitcoin’s value once soared to $100,000, but now we’re forced to imagine even greater possibilities. I’m confident that our investment will more than double in value over the next 12 months.

I personally own no Bitcoin. As soon as I grasp the notion that investors may “game the system” by pursuing silly fads, and this appears to be the latest aberration in financial theory destined to ultimately fail, I pay attention with great interest. The case for Bitcoin remains clouded in uncertainty, at least as far as I’m concerned?

Despite this, Buffett has repeatedly likened bitcoin to a game, suggesting that it is nothing more than a speculative tool with no underlying value. While Bitcoin’s long-term viability as an investment is uncertain, don’t dismiss its potential for short-term growth – particularly when trading beneath $20,000 towards the end of 2022 – as people can still revel in the cumulative value appreciation, a hallmark of any bubble. As Donald Trump and his associates return to Washington, there’s a heightened likelihood they’ll take steps to fan the flames of conspiracy theories further.

Bitcoin’s value soared significantly throughout 2024. It seems to me that the phenomenon is more likely to occur again given these wind conditions. —

I have some supplies right here. Due to the Bloomberg listing, the occupant of the top spot has undergone a change five times. Carlos Slim, Mexico’s wealthiest businessman, spearheaded the initial public offering of Microsoft in 2013, as the company’s surging stock prices fueled his leadership role from the start. rose The massive rally surrounding Tesla’s performance in January 2021 ensued. As a direct consequence of Elon Musk’s need to liquidate a significant portion of his Tesla wealth to fund his acquisition of Twitter, Although Elon Musk was once again at the forefront.

Will Elon Musk maintain his position as the world’s richest individual throughout 2024, withstanding potential challenges or usurpers? While wealth and health might typically take precedence for someone of Elon Musk’s age, his mercurial nature makes him an exception; unpredictability is a hallmark of his existence. I’d estimate a roughly 5% likelihood that he relinquishes his title through the Grim Reaper’s intervention.

Five prime-rated switches over 12.5 years of Bloomberg ratings suggest a naive estimate implying approximately a 40% likelihood that the top ranking will shift annually? Despite monthly fluctuations within the top 10, vast differences arise due to varying inventory returns playing a significant role in shaping the rankings.

Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, currently ranking 12th, saw his wealth surge to $73.4 billion in 2024, accounting for nearly two-thirds of his overall $117 billion fortune. Returning to the archives is a humbling experience, as it highlights the meteoric rise of a visionary like Elon Musk, whose innovative ventures have catapulted his net worth to a staggering $5.4 billion. The current national debt stands at approximately $455 billion. .

The probability of Elon Musk being overtaken as the richest person by another billionaire is 40 percent, with a separate 5 percent chance that he might pass away. This means there’s a combined 45 percent likelihood that someone else will surpass him in wealth or he’ll no longer be alive to claim the title.

While making an exception to my Bloomberg coverage here: hilariously, regardless of whether Bloomberg’s worth surges or Mike becomes the richest person on earth according to a reliable source, including the Financial Times or Forbes, I will reconsider Musk’s dethroning even if Bloomberg itself refuses to report on its chief’s riches. —

The final year saw a significant resurgence within the exploration of psychedelics as they sought a return to their place in mainstream medicine.

After roughly three decades of meticulous planning, Lykos Therapeutics, a commercially driven spinoff of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Research, founded in 1986, has reached a pivotal moment by submitting an application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) seeking approval for MDMA-based treatment of PTSD. Despite low expectations, the FDA’s recent approval could surprisingly succeed in unsettling psychedelic firms, advocates, and the industry at large?

While the FDA did not outright reject the application, it’s clear that the company will need to conduct an additional Phase 3 clinical trial, a process that may take several years to complete before resubmitting the request to the regulatory agency. As Lykos heads back to the drawing board, what company is next in line to make a fresh bid for FDA clearance?

My prediction: By 2025, nobody will have accomplished this feat.

At present, a limited number of companies are currently conducting Part 3 trials. Two Lykos, Compass Pathways and the Usona Institute, find themselves immersed in pivotal trials utilizing psilocybin to combat depression. Compass launched in January 2023, but was forced to release preliminary results and reduce its workforce by approximately 30% following the FDA’s decision on Lykos. They anticipate completing their research by February 2026.

Usona expects a lengthy development process, launching in March 2024, with completion of research and submission to the FDA anticipated by April 2026, assuming no significant delays.

It is highly unlikely that we would witness multiple companies simultaneously declare a Phase 3 trial, complete it, and submit the results to the FDA within the span of one year. It’s challenging to envision a viable path toward securing FDA approval by 2025. While some proponents advocate for psilocybin’s widespread medical adoption, others seek incremental progress, such as FDA emergency use authorizations or potential rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act, potentially paving the way for a psychedelic renaissance.

While I initially assessed the likelihood of FDA approval for regular approval in 2025 as near zero, considering the EUA backdoor and today’s global circumstances increases my estimate by up to 20 percent that we may see federally sanctioned medical use of a novel psychedelic drug by 2025. —

The notion that ‘ultra-processed meals’ is a dubious concept – its very scope and definition seem flawed, potentially leading to the stigmatization of foods that could actually be beneficial for our well-being. This concept lacks coherence as a viable policy tool. A scientific panel advising the development of federal dietary guidelines for 2025-2030 recently concluded that, as acknowledged in December, there is limited reliable evidence linking ultra-processed foods to poor health outcomes.

Despite being collectively developed by the US Department of Agriculture and the Department of Health and Human Services, the ultimate dietary tips crucially diverge from the scientific committee’s recommendations, significantly impacting federal nutrition programs such as the National School Lunch initiative. While there are differences in how the two sectors operate, it is often the case that they diverge significantly in their approach to highly efficient food production, similar to the meat industry and manufacturers of sweet treats. In stark contrast to prevailing wisdom and corporate interests, a comprehensive recommendation against highly processed foods is utterly incongruous with established nutrition knowledge.

Regardless of the hype surrounding Robert F., his life’s work as a renowned astrophysicist remains unparalleled. Kennedy Jr. I count on the doctor to return to a similar conclusion based on the science ultimately.

The widespread use of antibiotics in human medicine is actually mirrored in the livestock industry, where many antibiotics are used in animal feed to promote growth and prevent disease outbreaks in factory farming settings, which supplies meat products to humans. However, the overuse and misuse of antibiotics on farms have led to the emergence of resistant bacterial strains, rendering these life-saving medications increasingly ineffective in combatting human illnesses.

Experts caution that overuse of antibiotics in the livestock sector poses significant risks, emphasizing the need to curb unnecessary antibiotic applications within the industry.

In 2022, I forecasted a 2% increase in livestock antibiotic sales for 2023, but the actual outcome was a 1% decline instead. Knowledge on gross sales tends to lag by a couple of years. Initially, I overstated the significance of past trends, neglecting that antibiotic sales to the livestock industry had been steadily increasing over several years. Instead, I could have employed projected meat production as a robust surrogate for livestock antibiotic sales.

Antibiotic sales to meat producers are forecast to rise by approximately 0.83% in 2024, driven by stable beef production, modest growth in pork output, and a slight decline in turkey production.

The uncertainty surrounding my estimate is compounded by several factors, similar to the way prevalent illnesses and businesses reducing antibiotic use due to customer anxiety can skew results. To ensure the preservation of a cornerstone of modern medicine – antibiotics – I fervently hope to remain ineffective. —

Since the onset of 2022, some 112 million poultry birds – primarily comprising turkeys and layer hens – have been culled in an endeavour to slow the spread of avian influenza, a disease that has severely impacted the poultry industry since early 2020?

The primary year was marked by a devastating toll on bird populations, with a staggering nearly 58 million birds lost. As disease outbreaks persisted in 2023, the industry faced a significant slowdown, resulting in approximately 21.8 million poultry birds being rendered unusable. However, matters took a turn for the worse in 2024, with a staggering 41 million birds succumbing to disease by mid-December. By the end of 2025, I foresee a devastating toll: at least another 30 million lives lost.

Given the inherent uncertainty surrounding this unpredictable illness, I’m tentatively estimating a 60% level of confidence in any predictions made. It’s unreasonable to assume the Trump administration would handle this situation with the same ineptitude as the Biden administration, risking uncontrolled transmission of the virus between livestock and wildlife by not implementing adequate measures to prevent its spread.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has been conducting trials on vaccines for swine and poultry. Despite the progress made, there remains uncertainty regarding when they will be ready and, more crucially, whether they will be deployed, since employing them could potentially disrupt commercial activities, a scenario both industries and the USDA wish to avoid at all costs? —

The United States pork industry has been seeking a resolution for six years to address the consequences of Prop 12, a landmark animal welfare law passed through popular vote in 2018, which prohibits certain forms of excessive confinement on factory farms. The company prohibited the sale of pork sourced from farms using gestation crates, small enclosures where sows were often confined with limited mobility and freedom. As you near the end of your college application process, the prospect feels eerily akin to living your entire, fleeting existence pregnant and helplessly entombed within a coffin’s suffocating confines.

Having failed to convince courts of their authorized grounds for repealing the law, along with industry leaders, pork giants are now attempting to persuade Congress to repeal Prop 12 through the Farm Bill, a comprehensive legislative package passed every five years shaping much of US food and farming policy. The Final Farm Bill, sponsored by the House Agriculture Committee under Republican leadership, includes a provision with significant implications for home agriculture. Remaining steadfast in dedication, I am committed to serving at all times.

At that point, I couldn’t have predicted this version of the invoice would take shape as it did. If Congress prioritizes the long-stalled Farm Bill this year, Republicans’ prospects for repealing Proposition 12 will significantly improve, given their majority in both chambers. Despite this, I fail to envision the scenario unfolding, primarily due to some Freedom Caucus members imposing excessively stringent constraints on state governments’ ability to craft their own policies. Despite their repeated vows to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, Republicans have a penchant for discussing repeal but rarely follow through on their promises.

In August this year, Saudi Arabia prohibited the production and marketing of “cultured” or “cell-based” meat. Cell-cultivated meat is, in fact, meat, just produced without slaughtering animals – a pioneering alternative. Startups culture animal cells in large metal tanks, nourishing them with a blend of sugars, minerals, vitamins, and amino acids for several weeks until they can be harvested as edible meat.

While strict regulations have been implemented to protect each state’s vital livestock sectors and consider pertinent political variables. The historic milestone achieved by traditional farmers and conservative state governors – cultured meat remains prohibitively expensive, available only in limited quantities at select US restaurants for niche audiences.

The field of lab-grown meat technology is rapidly evolving, with uncertainty surrounding whether startup companies developing this innovation can successfully scale their operations to produce a substantial volume of meat. However, once they successfully scale up production, these bans could pose a significant challenge in the long run, impacting both companies’ bottom lines and America’s climate goals, as cell-cultivated meat holds immense potential for.

Legislators across the country are rallying behind Florida and Alabama’s initiatives to implement state-specific bans, with similar measures already underway in Arizona, Michigan, Tennessee, and Illinois. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen has stated his intention to collaborate with state legislators to propose a ban in the next legislative session.

While I perceive the likelihood of at least one state passing a ban as disproportionate, it’s especially high in Nebraska, given that Pillen is possibly one of the country’s leading pork producers. While its immediate impact may be negligible for cell-cultivated meat startups, this move could cultivate long-term political animosity with far-reaching and devastating consequences. —

The evidence suggests that the widespread legalization of gambling has had, at best, a minimal impact. As concerns surrounding accessibility and regulation continue to escalate, it’s crucial to take swift action before a potential crisis unfolds on our fingertips.

As I stand in the midst of a reality that’s unimaginable to one who emerged from the darkness of. Pete Rose’s exclusion from the National Baseball Hall of Fame stems not from any personal judgment about the man himself, but rather from his on-field actions being viewed as a profound betrayal of the game’s fundamental principles and values. At present, Major League Baseball broadcasts unfold across various channels, including the FanDuel Sports Network in my area.

Only utter chaos could shatter the enchantment properly. The truth is that since the landmark 2018 Supreme Court ruling, we’ve witnessed a spate of sports activities betting scandals unfold. The NFL has suspended its wide receiver Calvin Ridley for violating league policies related to betting and gambling. A disgraced NBA player was ejected from the league after being accused of providing inside information to bettors and adjusting his performance in accordance with wagering patterns.

These players were far from All-Star caliber, let alone household names. While we’ve yet to see a prominent athlete like LeBron James or Patrick Mahomes embroiled in playing-allegations controversy, We have finally arrived at this moment. In 2022, Shohei Ohtani, the National League Most Valuable Player for the Los Angeles Dodgers, was embroiled in a controversy surrounding his personal coach’s legal expenses linked to his baseball activities, only to have Ohtani exonerated from any wrongdoing?

With the spotlight constantly shining on professional athletes, it’s inevitable that a high-profile sports personality will soon be embroiled in a major playing scandal. Is this the right year? It will not be. However, it appears that a player of Pete Rose’s caliber is already available in the marketplace. —

Hear, has . Crimson Bulls’ reigning champion Max Verstappen has consistently asserted his supremacy on the track; nonetheless, with Lewis Hamilton, a seven-time winner, making the bold move to Scuderia Ferrari, my confidence in Verstappen’s dominance is wavering? Additionally, McLaren’s star driver Lando Norris has been impressing fans with his performances throughout the current season thus far? While I’m not a fan of Lando’s antics, it’s undeniable that he’s steadily closing in on becoming a legitimate contender for the top spot. While I predict Max will triumph in the drivers’ championship, Red Bull’s fortunes are likely to dwindle, resulting in another constructors’ title slip-up for the team.

As a devoted fan of Charli, I’ve witnessed her transformation from a rising star to a household name over the years. Was “Boredom” synonymous with a generation, as its irreverent beats and lyrics became the sonic defining feature of the sweltering summer season – a cultural phenomenon that transcended music and morphed into a ubiquitous meme, with the album’s neon green cover art serving as a visual shorthand for what was cool. The highly acclaimed album appeared at or near the top of numerous year-end lists, including those from prominent publications such as Metacritic and The New York Times; it would be astonishing if it did not emerge victorious in the “Album of the Year” category. As a professional editor, I would improve the text as follows:

However, I’m prepared to be open-minded about the prediction: “360,” “Apple,” and the “Guess” remix featuring Billie Eilish are strong contenders in their respective track categories, alongside the honoree’s own work. Only in exceptional circumstances could the Academy consider retroactively awarding Charli.