Supply: Citi GPS
In 2013, a mere $1 million was invested in startups exclusively focused on humanoid technologies. Instantly, the total value of personal investments in the trade exceeded $1.4 billion. This month, Citigroup’s top research analysts published a report titled “The Emergence of AI Robotics: The Dawn of Physical Artificial Intelligence.”
According to a recent Yahoo podcast appearance by contributor Fei Wenyan, he predicted that by 2050, the market for humanoids will reach a staggering $7 trillion.
Rob Garlick, a contributing researcher, bolstered Wenyan’s provocative claim by highlighting the pivotal disparity in today’s landscape: the speed at which generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is evolving.
“Despite being a familiar concept, robots have seen significant advancements recently,” he stated. Synthetic intelligence is likely to have significant implications.
The report highlights a milestone achievement by Wenyan and Garlick in identifying 50 renowned builders globally. The H1 robot can transfer at a speed of approximately 3.3 meters per second, which translates to 7.3 miles per hour, and is capable of dancing; do you want a robotic that can achieve the same from Boston Dynamics, Phoenix’s Gen 7, or Unitree’s humanoid, which can even fold itself into a cabinet-like shape?
The report highlights a disconcerting disparity between human wages and the economic advantages of robots, leveraging Tesla’s market value as a benchmark.
As advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics continue to accelerate, the potential for humanoid machines to fill a widening range of job roles becomes increasingly evident. If Elon Musk’s predicted price point for Tesla’s Optimus remains at $25,000 ($20,000-$30,000), it is theoretically possible to achieve a 36-week payback period based on the current minimum wage in the United States of $7.25 per hour. Minimal wages in California at $16 per hour, typical manufacturing facility wages of $28 per hour, and average salaries across the United States are significantly lower, with median annual wages hovering around $44,000. Nurses’ wages of $41 are factored in to explore various payback scenarios. It’s clear that humanoids have tremendous economic potential, as their existence would undoubtedly raise questions about the value and purpose of humanity.
Last week, I had the opportunity to interact with one of the newest additions to the human-like robot family. With a background in humanoid science spanning over a decade, he has led pioneering projects like NASA’s Robonaut and Valkyrie, which were among the initial humanoid deployments in space.
I was fortunate enough to have worked on a project at NASA. The prevailing economic conditions made it feasible for us to explore the possibility of collaborating with humanoid robots alongside astronauts. The hourly rate for an astronaut stationed at the International Space Station is approximately $300,000, while performing extravehicular activities, such as spacewalks, costs over $1 million per hour? When navigating complex economic scenarios, having a highly skilled and experienced financial expert – akin to a humanoid assistant with a budget of millions – can be a valuable asset, according to industry expert Radford.
Nic Radford with NASA’s Valkyrie robotic. Credit score: Evan Ackerman of the IEEE
Humanoids make progress with GenAI
What advancements have recently emerged in humanoid capabilities that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago?
“While taking a glance at robots currently operating on earth, it’s striking to compare them to those from 10 or 15 years ago – from an electromechanical perspective, there isn’t much divergence.” “What’s truly transformed is the cognitive framework of the humanoid, enabling swift comprehension of its surroundings and informed decision-making.”
Radford’s comment is exemplified by the surge in recent Generation-AI enabled robotic instruments that have become readily available on the market, ostensibly designed to instruct robots to interact seamlessly with our human environment. A breakthrough startup, born from the innovative lab of at UC San Diego. Hillbot redefines the boundaries of AI-powered sports training by revolutionizing the art of robotic coaching.
“Using an AI-based approach, Hillbot can rapidly produce vast amounts of coaching data necessary to train foundation models for robotics with diverse capabilities,” it claims. “Basis fashions, akin to those used in language processing, offer a transferable skillset that can be adapted for specific tasks, reducing the need to retrain robots from scratch for each new function.”
By leveraging simulation-driven coaching, Hillbot significantly accelerates the development process while simultaneously reducing costs associated with traditional coaching methods in real-world environments. As Hillbot refines its foundational technologies, the company aims to establish a flexible framework that enables robots to be quickly adapted for new tasks through simple model retraining simulations.
Hillbot has joined a growing list of innovative startups, alongside Bezos-backed entities from Texas and New York’s own pioneering ventures.
Despite complexities, humans strive to master intricate techniques.
New fashion foundations challenge even the most agile individuals with demanding dexterity requirements. While folding laundry represents a significant milestone in development, it remains distinct from the impressive skills of a seven-year-old successfully tying his shoes.
As Radford struggles to grasp the shifting objective posts, he finds himself perplexed by the sudden emphasis on showcasing machines capable of dispensing soda or deftly folding garments.
“He noted that what appears to be a proliferation of high-paying job opportunities is actually a result of sophisticated manipulation.” Will we witness a widespread proliferation of humanoid robots in every aspect of life? Effectively, I really consider so. When’s the only question.
While Persona AI’s website deliberately avoids specifics regarding its approach, Radford noted that the company has a defined niche or area of expertise. The moment of truth is approaching, and I’m eager to reveal what’s been hidden in wait. We’re not building a family sedan. We’re constructing a truck. As we build something with significantly enhanced functionality and a dash of added robustness.
Hand-illustrated diagrams of the Robonaut 2, “A Hand Meant to Accomplish Tasks with Tools.”
Radford’s design philosophy is rooted in his impressive achievements at NASA, where his team developed a pioneering robotic system capable of operating switches and dials on the International Space Station.
Radford posited that a humanoid platform was merely an outer vessel housing two manipulators and two fingers, underscoring the simplicity of its design. Despite its seemingly straightforward design, the human hand remains an utterly captivating and complex entity. It’s both fascinatingly helpful and arduous. It’s extraordinarily arduous to understand. It’s notoriously difficult to control entities.
Because of this fact, the robotics community started by taking on tasks that primarily involved grasping objects and moving them around, regardless of their size or material, such as field or sheet metal. Here is the rewritten text:
“Conversely, our hands showcased a remarkable contrast in dexterity: on one end of the spectrum, a delicate precision capable of assembling an iPhone using miniature screwdrivers and tiny screws.” In order to determine when one has achieved sufficient proficiency, I’ve consistently maintained that it’s only a matter of time before you can comfortably retrieve a penny from your pocket and place it on top of a nickel.
As a professional editor, I would revise the text as follows:
For my part, Radford’s Penny Problem has issued a challenge to achieve a novel Turing test benchmark for humanoids.
Builders bullish on market potential
Radford’s unwavering enthusiasm is mirrored by numerous experts in the field, including Elon Musk, who prophesied that by 2040, humanity can expect to coexist with at least 10 billion humanoid robots.
The company’s CEO further estimated that the lucrative sales of fleet packages could propel his already highly profitable business to unprecedented financial heights.
“When robotic taxis become mainstream, Tesla’s valuation could surge to a staggering $5 trillion,” said Elon Musk. The notion that the Optimus robot would catapult Tesla to a $25 trillion valuation is an intriguing idea.
The founder of Persona, a Texas-based entrepreneur, initially concurred with his colleague from the Lone Star State, yet voiced several qualifying remarks in tandem.
“When discussing a market worth trillions of dollars, the investment we’re seeing in it is justified due to the immense market potential,” said Radford. The prospect has been hailed as the largest total addressable market of a lifetime by seasoned traders. Yet, a concerted effort from financial stakeholders, consumers, and industry specialists will be required to drive meaningful progress.
“As a consequence, there may be instances where everyone acknowledges that this plan won’t succeed.” Within the autonomous driving team, I’ve witnessed firsthand situations where skepticism prevailed: “This will never freaking work.” It’s too variable. The limitations of artificial intelligence still leave room for human oversight: “With numerous scenarios and edge cases to consider, I must continue monitoring my Model X’s autonomous capabilities, although even its autopilot feature occasionally warrants human intervention, as was the case when it drove me home last night.”
